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100 Days Later and We're Still Tariff-ied

PLUS: Meta's just bought space on your retinas
July 9, 2025
Image: Future Commerce Prompt Factory

Welcome to Wednesday, futurists.

What do Brunei, Moldova, Algeria, Iraq, Sri Lanka, and Libya have in common? They’re the target of new tariff rates ranging from 20% to 30%. Yikes.

Meanwhile, the retail world breathes a TACO sigh of relief as the tariff deadline gets extended to August 1st.

President Trump announced the new rates to the respective nations’ leaders in a series of letters published on Truth Social.

We initially created The First 100 Days to document what we believed was a critical period for the new administration and the new US Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick. 

However, it is clear that tariff talks and trade tensions are far from over. That’s why we’ve made some updates to our Member Brief, which is available to all Future Commerce Plus members.

Sign up and get the latest on all the latest news and analysis tied to the Department of Commerce.

Policy content is a premium benefit for Plus members. 

— Phillip

P.S. Prime Day ambitions? Pick up a piece of Future Commerce print for a bit less. Grab LORE, Muses, Archetypes, or The Multiplayer Brand for 15% off with promo code PRIMEDAY2025 at shop.futurecommerce.com

The adidas Manchester Market Street store will officially reopen as a northern based retail hub for the adidas Originals x Oasis Live ‘25 collection
Image: Adidas

Sweet Retail Music. In the lead-up to their much-anticipated reunion tour, Oasis launched a new collection with Adidas featuring 26 items in various color options. Some are synonymous with the band, such as Noel’s favorite Firebird tracksuit and Liam’s iconic raglan sleeve jersey, but many are collectibles to mark what, to some, is a pivotal moment in music history. Adidas is doubling down on their investment by reopening its Market Street store in Manchester, which is stocked with the full Adidas Originals x Oasis Live ‘25 apparel collection. While in-store, shoppers can customize their apparel and see archive Adidas pieces worn by the band via a museum display of sorts. 

Specs Appeal. Meta has invested about $3.5B in EssilorLuxottica, maker of Ray-Ban, Oakley, and Prada eyewear, which equates to a nearly 3% stake. Meta and EssilorLuxottica began their partnership in 2019 with the launch of the Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses, which has sold two million units of its second-gen version since late 2023. Prada and Oakley models are currently in the works. 

This clearly isn’t just a hardware play, or a way for Meta to get deeper into retail. It’s a way for Meta to make smart glasses more mainstream and monetize your line of sight. The news comes after Google announced a similar investment in Gentle Monster, its own smart glasses partner. 

Image: US District Court of the Central District of California

Namaste Mad. Lululemon is taking dupes to court. The high-end sportswear company is suing Costco for copying its apparel designs, and has the receipts to prove it. In a filing, Lululemon showed a series of designs to illustrate how the warehouse club copied the “trade dress,” or outward appearance of these products. 

One of the garments at the center of the suit is the ABC Pants, which Lululemon claimed was copied extensively for Costco’s Kirkland Signature 5 Pocket Performance Pant. YouTuber and fashion CEO Joe Ng took to his platform to analyze their respective designs, and noted that most of Lululemon’s design elements are relatively common. 

Our Take: Although the actual jury is still out on the case, the court of public opinion is clearly siding with Costco. With dupes being such an integral part of commerce today, the ruling will likely set a precedent for future cases, but it is unlikely to impact consumer spending significantly.

Economic volatility and tariff fears are shaking up how and where people spend their money. Price and value are top of mind, and the Kirkland brand has proven time and time again that it prioritizes both quality and affordability.

The real question: do these actually look alike? 

Diamonds Are a Girl's Best Recession Indicator. Is luxury jewelry spending a new recession indicator? A new Citigroup analysis of credit card data reveals that while consumers are scaling back on cosmetics and luxury spending across most categories, fine jewelry continues to shine. Sales within this category surged more than 10% year-over-year in May 2025 as overall luxury spending fell 1.7%. A big reason could be tied to consumer price perception and how they’re defining “value.” While luxury handbags have seen price hikes of up to 40%, jewelry price increases have been relatively mild, averaging 5%. 

Image: Mischief

Gone Fishing. In what could best be described as a highly practical marketing stunt, Goldfish popped up on the Jersey Shore to offer “Goldfish Retrieval Service” for families embarking on their Fourth of July travels. The snack is a staple in many households and, if you’re a parent, you know these cheesy crackers don’t just fall into mouths; they also end up in your car’s crevices too. Goldfish said “our bad” and offered customers a free carwash, vacuum service, and Goldfish bar with 15 different flavors as a thank you for their loyalty. Who says brand activations can’t be fun and useful?

Image courtesy of @lindayaX on X

X Marks the Spot (Where CEOs Go to Die). X CEO Linda Yaccarino has stepped down from her role after two years. She has remained a steadfast advocate for owner Elon Musk, despite criticism of the platform’s increasingly hostile environment. The timing of her resignation is somewhat suspect, as just yesterday, Grok was exhibiting antisemitic behavior and users were using it to perpetrate simulated sexual assault (tw: sexual assault) on others.

New hire Nikita Bier described Grok as the “Antichrist” in a tweet he has since retracted.

Yaccarino was hired to lead the company after serving as chairman of global advertising and partnerships at NBCUniversal. Her ad sales experience was a significant draw for Musk’s growth aspirations, but efforts were cut short when an onslaught of advertisers boycotted the app. There is no word yet on who will replace her as Musk strives to turn X into a super app, a vision that was clarified with xAI’s (also owned by Musk) acquisition of X this spring. 

Surveillance for Sale. The National Retail Federation (NRF) has sued New York state over a new law requiring retailers to tell customers when their personal data are being used to set prices or risk a $1,000 fine per violation. The industry trade group indicated that New York’s Algorithmic Pricing Disclosure Act violates the First Amendment free speech rights of its members. 

Surveillance pricing, an increasingly common tactic used by companies like Kroger, allows merchants to algorithmically set prices based on a customer’s overall “willingness to pay” a certain price. In a complaint filed in Manhattan federal court, the NRF said the law reflected "speculative fear" of price gouging, even though retailers use algorithms to offer promotions and reward customer loyalty, sometimes resulting in lower prices.

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