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FORESIGHT AND TRENDS

2026 Predictions

The Age of Autonomy & Sovereignty: the collapse of consumer trust meets the retailer on AI autopilot.

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Prepare for the Age of Autonomy

Past predictions →

Channels & Media

Retail & Commerce MediaRetail media turns commerce into content. Every retailer now operates as a measurable media property.Marketplaces & ChannelsMarketplaces demand deliberate channel diversification. Every retailer now manages a portfolio of commerce channels.Social CommerceSocial commerce is cultural infrastructure, where discovery, identity, and purchase converge at the speed of culture.AI & Agentic CommerceAI is the new front door to commerce. Brands must serve humans and agents, or risk the Agentic Ghetto.

Brand & Loyalty

Creator EconomyCreators are now structural to commerce. They supply the audience, the channel, the CMO, and often the brand.Retention & LoyaltyCustomer loyalty is arbitrage, not affection. As performance marketing decays, retention becomes the whole game.

Culture & Experience

Physical Retail & ExperiencePhysical retail is a sensory medium, measured by Return on Experience rather than sales per square foot.Luxury CommerceLuxury commerce is not a price tier. It manufactures desire, status, scarcity, and meaning.Commerce Policy & GeopoliticsCommerce policy is technology policy. Tariffs, antitrust, and data rights shape the infrastructure of global trade.

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Podcasts·The Senses·Insiders·Field Notes·Guides

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The Senses

The dispatch decoding the cultural forces shaping commerce, brands, and consumer behavior.

Insiders

Numbered essays on brands, cultural meaning, and the business systems behind them.

Field Notes MEMBERS

Retail store teardowns scored against the Senses Matrix and reported from the field.

The London Brief

Field reports on London retail, luxury commerce, culture, and the future of the store.

Guides & Research

Guides FC Insights VISIONS Word-of-Mouth Index MEMBERS Member Briefs MEMBERS

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Latest Research

1,000 Consumers Told Us How They Use AI to Shop

Holiday shopping data with Cimulate: how consumers actually shop with AI. Includes the companion film, Your Store is a Chatbot Now.

Read the research →

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Our shows

Memorable Over Measurable: Retail’s Lost Wonders

Future Commerce

Flagship

Commerce and culture, weekly, with Phillip Jackson and Brian Lange.

Step by StepOperator playbooks. One problem at a time for people who ship.

DecodedThematic explainers that decode one big shift in commerce per season.

Infinite ShelfHuman-centric brand building, and retail culture with Ingrid Milman Cordy.

Listen & watch everywhere Apple Podcasts·Spotify·YouTubeAll episodes →

Topics+

FORESIGHT AND TRENDS2026 Predictions: The Age of Autonomy & SovereigntyListen to Ep. 435 →

Channels & Media

Retail & Commerce Media Marketplaces & Channels Social Commerce AI & Agentic Commerce

Brand & Loyalty

Creator Economy Retention & Loyalty

Culture & Experience

Physical Retail & Experience Luxury Commerce Commerce Policy & Geopolitics

Podcasts+

Future Commerce Step by Step Decoded Infinite Shelf

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The Senses Insiders Field NotesMEMBERS The London Brief

Insights & Research

Guides FC Insights VISIONS Word-of-Mouth IndexMEMBERS Member BriefsMEMBERS

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In the Field

Shoptalk The Lead Summit Conference Guides

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VISIONS Summit & Salons

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Insiders: Weekly Digest & Essays for DTC Operators

Thanks to AI, the CEO Just Became an Individual Contributor

One founder runs a multi-million-dollar brand with five employees and no technical background, rebuilding her site herself. At a major distributor, leaders get dashboards via plain-English prompts. The C-suite is picking up tools again.

Alicia Esposito

Carlos GutierrezFormer U.S. Secretary of Commerce

Elizabeth GoodspeedDesigner · Writer

Our annual summit / November 3

Before we build it, we have to envision it.

On November 3, join the visionaries taking the stage at VISIONS. A summit on commerce, culture, and AI at MoMA in New York.

Explore VISIONS

Insiders is a weekly eCommerce publication giving you the tools, insights, and research you need to take control of your eCommerce, retail, or DTC business.

The “Quiet Season” Fallacy: Why Waiting for Black Friday is Destroying Your Retail Business

Gala Pustova

Where Were You When the Monoculture Returned?

Alicia Esposito

Roots to Rock: How Two New York Icons Are Redefining Modern Community

Alicia Esposito

Sticki Rolls is Turning Stickers into the New Social Currency

Alicia Esposito

“Vertical Dramas” and the New Era of Commerce Media

Alicia Esposito

The Alpha Effect: How Gen Alpha is Redefining Back-to-School Spending

Alicia Esposito

Inside Miniso’s Quest to Be the Next Disney

Alicia Esposito

Sensory Marketing: 3 Trends Driving the Next Era of Brand Engagement

Alicia Esposito

What’s Driving the Infantilization of Retail?

Jack Stratten

The Millennial Breakdown is Driving a Cultural Uprising

Alicia Esposito

Your Digital Flagship Needs an Architect

Simone Oltolina

Our Post-Funnel Future: Brand Ethos is the New Competitive Moat

Alicia Esposito

What Kiko Milano, Clarks, and Fiorucci Are Doing During the AI Revolution

Alicia Esposito

The London Brief: Whisper or Shout? London Retail Has Both

Phillip Jackson

Confidence is a Colorway: GLP-1s and Fashion’s Fight to Keep Up

Alicia Esposito

Insiders #231: The Process is the Product

[Member Brief] The Power of the Modern Commerce Department: Every Fable Has a Moral

Alicia Esposito & Phillip Jackson

Commerce Has a Humiliation Fetish

Angelica Frey

The Backrooms and the Cultural Capital of Color

Alicia Esposito & Phillip Jackson

Nike Is Embracing the Mess: Inside the Brand's New World Cup Campaign

Alicia Esposito

[MEMBER BRIEF] The Cost of the Future: Who Gets to Participate in the AI Era, and Who Doesn't

Phillip Jackson and Nicole Silberstein

Seize the Moment: How B2B and B2C Brands Are Buying Their Way into the Experience Economy

Alicia Esposito

The Hunt for Identity and the Teen Media Renaissance

Alexa Phillips

For Love of the Game: Commerce and the Culture of Sport

Alicia Esposito

[POLICY BRIEF] The Halo Effect of the New Economy

Alicia Esposito & Phillip Jackson

Vision as a System: Building with Legacy, Culture, and Intention

Alicia Esposito

Member Brief: Return on Experience and the New KPIs of Store Design

Alicia Esposito

Non-Determinism and the Death of Performance Marketing

Oleksii Lunkov

Shoptalk 2026: Where Conference Takeaways Became Cultural Strata

Alicia Esposito

Has AI Reset Maslow’s Hierarchy?

Alicia Esposito

NRF’s State of the Consumer: Gen Z Is Shopping Their Way Through Uncertainty

Alicia Esposito

Shoptalk 2026 Side Events and After Parties

Alicia Esposito & Phillip Jackson

Shoptalk 2026 Floor Plan: Interactive Exhibitor Map & Booth Finder

Alicia Esposito & Phillip Jackson

The Collapse Of Brand Authority & The Rise Of The Yapper

Alex Greifeld

What to Expect at Shoptalk 2026: The Complete Guide

Alicia Esposito & Phillip Jackson

Table for One: Inside the Strange, and Very Real World of AI Dating

Sharon Gai

Shoptalk Las Vegas: The Complete Attendee Guide

Alicia Esposito

Insiders #100: A Retrospective

Phillip Jackson

Victoria's Biggest Secret: Sustainbility

Phillip Jackson

INSIDERS 001: The Future is What You Make Of It

Phillip Jackson

Target's Future-Proofing Strategy

Phillip Jackson

Unplugging from the Attention Economy

Phillip Jackson

Capitalism: The Attention Economy Solution

Phillip Jackson

Audience-First Commerce is Your Terroir

Brian Lange

Local Business: The Antidote to Surveillance Capitalism

Phillip Jackson

Merchants Cannot Live By Brand Alone

Brian Lange

On Replica Sneakers and the Value of Art

Brian Lange

How to Lose a Customer in 10 Days

Phillip Jackson

On Rivalries and the Sociology of the Underdog

Phillip Jackson

Consumerism stinks. But you smell AMAZING.

Phillip Jackson

Have we stopped dreaming of the future?

Phillip Jackson

If you're discounting to keep customers, you've already failed.

Brian Lange

eCommerce Podcast Roundup 2/14/2020

Phillip Jackson

The Terrible Timing & Missed Opportunities of Retail Seasonality

Brian Lange

Outdoor Voices: A Vision Statement For A Future Community

Phillip Jackson

Small-Town USA in March 2020: A Photo Essay

Brian Lange

It's Time To Build Things That Last

Brian Lange

Mourning the Loss of Retail Therapy

Lianne Hikind

Data is King. Long Live the Queen.

Ingrid Milman Cordy

Home Gardens: A Leading Indicator of Changing Consumer Defaults

Brian Lange

Nostalgia as a Security Blanket

Brian Lange

New report details brands that will survive in 2020

Phillip Jackson

Baby Steps: An Innovation Framework

Brian Lange

The New Dada: Absurdism, Maximalism, and the Generational Divide

Brian Lange

Checkoff’s Run and Chekhov’s Gun

Phillip Jackson

Merchandizing the Innovations of Operations

Kris Gösser

Disruptor, Disrupted: The Rebirth of Payless ShoeSource and the Dawn of the Internet

Phillip Jackson

The Existential Brand Part 1: Teleological Progress

Brian Lange

An Anecdoted Topography of Brands

Jesse Tyler

We All Need Some Channel to Lean on

Ingrid Milman Cordy

The Existential Brand Part 2: Risks Are All We Have Left

Brian Lange

The DIY Era: Retail Opportunity in the Passion Economy

Phillip Jackson

Virtual Influencers Killed the Dead Celebrity

Phillip Jackson

On Digital Neighborhoods, Discovery and Virtual Foot Traffic

Phillip Jackson

Resolution Season: Context is Everything

Phillip Jackson

Vision 2021: Forecasting the Future of Consumerism Shaped By Recent Rapid Shifts in Digital Engagement

Phillip Jackson

The Changing of the Guard Signals A Coming Post-Innovation Age

Phillip Jackson

Embracing Your Brand’s “Unsavory” Provenance

Mitch C. Olsen, Ph.D.

How Platform Maturation Begat Product Innovation

Phillip Jackson

Experimentation as Insurance Against Expectation Inflation

Brian Lange

Grocery in 2021 Feels More Like 2035

Erik Wallin

So You Think You're a Collector

Brian Lange

AdTech and the Cookieless Future

Phillip Jackson and Brian Lange

Rethinking Brand Power Structures

Brian Lange

The Rising Tide and the Erosive Effect of Digital Platforms

Phillip Jackson

On Sacrificial Lambs, The Guardians, and the Everlane Hype Cycle

Melissa Lee, with Phillip Jackson and Callen Hutton

Marketing is a Relationship That’s “Til Death Do Us Part”

Phillip Jackson and Brian Lange

Dazed and Confused: Post-Pandemic Puberty

Brian Lange

On Loyalty and Posthypnotic Suggestion

Phillip Jackson

A Sonnet: A Brand’s New Infatuation Dissipates Like Early Dew

Brian Lange

Paula’s Choice: On Blind Spots and Phase Cancellation

Phillip Jackson

How Now Brand Cow: On Operational Efficiency in eCommerce Tech

Brian Lange

How Now Brand Cow: On Operational Efficiency in eCommerce Tech

Brian Lange

Digital Luxury Experiences: An Exercise in “Skinnovation”

Alex Greifeld

The Experience Impact Score: A Framework for Brand Interaction

Phillip Jackson and Brian Lange

The Four Forgotten eCommerce Disciplines

Phillip Jackson

The Duh Moment was when I Spent $169 on a Steam Cleaner

Phillip Jackson

The Good, The Bad, The Totally Absurd: The Corporate Merch Alignment Chart

Jesse Tyler

The Texting Trial: Making SMS Marketing Feel Human

Brian Lange

Cybersquatting in the Age of Decentralization

Phillip Jackson

More Than Consumers: Enabling Altruistic Commerce

Brian Lange

Dork Mode: An Antidote To The Sea Of Sameness

Alex Greifeld

The Idolatry of the Algorithm.

Phillip Jackson

Future Commerce Guide to Black Friday

Phillip Jackson and Brian Lange

Spirit Guide: Making Me a NA Beverage Believer

Jesse Tyler

Dude Where's my Brand Awareness?

Alex Greifeld

Brand-Up Comedy: When the Mayo Brand Punches Down

Phillip Jackson

The Death & Rebirth of Neutrality

Phillip Jackson

Three Lessons to Empower Merchant Teams

Ingrid Milman Cordy

NO DAYS OFF: Use Data To Build a Peak Subscription Channel

Brian Lange

Women: Help Other Women in eCommerce

Erin DaCruz

Tread Lightly: Coupon Blogs, False Advertising and the Role of the FTC

Phillip Jackson

Wellness Brands: The New Pornographers

Phillip Jackson

A Marketer's Guide to the Multiverse of Madness

Brian Lange

Finding Joy and Purpose in Hard Work

Phillip Jackson

An Honest Review of DTC Razors

The Uncorkening: Revisiting DTC Groupthink and Brand Criticism

Phillip Jackson

Tru$t is the New eCommerce Currency: How to Build Customer Trust That Drives Revenue and Retention

Brian Lange

From the Mailroom to The Boardroom: Reevaluating Your Brand’s Fundamentals

Brian Lange

What are these Strawberries Doing on my Nipples?

Phillip Jackson

What's Your Customer's Subscription Sign? A Star Map of Subscription Personas

Phillip Jackson and Brian Lange

Role-Playing with Luxury Goods

Phillip Jackson

Real [Ex]change: The Growth Opportunity for Converting Returners to Exchangers

Phillip Jackson and Brian Lange

A Guide to Realistic Change Management

Alex Greifeld

Quantum Yeet: Entering the Quantum Age

Brian Lange

An eCommerce Perspective on Vending Machines and Customer Acquisition

Sanjay Jenkins

The Power of Commerce: A 10-Day Meditation

Phillip Jackson

A Day In the Life of Nana Alexa

Erin DaCruz

How to Architect a Dreamy eCommerce Exit

Phillip Jackson and Brian Lange

Let's Get In-Quiz-ative: How to Create a Quiz that Educates and Engages Your Customers

Phillip Jackson

Eat, Drink, and Be Wary: the Nature of Human Consumption

Brian Lange

How Ops is Changing into a Team of "Yes"

Kris Gösser

Everything is Art Because Everyone's a Critic

Phillip Jackson

Glossier's Controversial Site Redesign: Bold Move or Epic Fail?

Alex Greifeld

The Rise of Mockup Culture: How Graphic Designers are Using Hyperstition to Shape Our Consumer Reality

Phillip Jackson

150 eCommerce Acronyms: Business & Retail Abbreviations Guide

Aaron Orendorff & Phillip Jackson

The Allure of Subscriptions: The Shiny Ball of Recurring Revenue

Amy Silino

Demystifying Retail Tax Compliance: 7 Common Challenges Retailers Face - And How to Solve Them

Erin DaCruz

4 Ways to Screw Up an Acquisition

Phillip Jackson

Lovers and Outlaws: Redefining Modern Consumerism

Melissa Henderson

Language Games: How New Nostalgia is Borne

Brian Lange

Lovers and Outlaws: Beyond the Wedding Registry

Melissa Henderson

The Importance of eCommerce & the Role of Commerce in Society

Phillip Jackson

The Monkey's Paw of Art x Commerce

Phillip Jackson

Lovers and Outlaws: Dating, Dupes and Levels of Delulu

Melissa Henderson

Betty Crocker's Egg is a Myth. Embrace Unknowing.

Matt Klein

It’s Not Business, It’s Personal: The Lines Between B2B and B2C are Blurring

Brian Lange

Astrological Affluence: The Celestial Blueprint of Elite Consumer Behavior

Melissa Henderson

Are You Ready for “Returnuary”?: 8 Ways Tax Affects Holiday Gift Returns

Erin DaCruz

MrBeast and Walt Disney: Parallels in Modern Marketing Innovation

Leo Strupczewski

Are Modern Brands “Post-Purpose”?

Alexa Lombardo

The 2023 Future Commerce Holiday Gift Guide

Phillip Jackson

Roblox Brand Activations: Key Insights and Trends (2026)

Phillip Jackson

Ancient Inspiration and Divine Innovation: A Recap of MUSES

Phillip Jackson

The Cultural Footprint of Brands: From Ingredients to Icons

Phillip Jackson

European Tax Compliance: 5 Questions to Ask Before Expanding Across Borders

Erin DaCruz

A Lament for the Internet: Were the 2010s Our Cyber ‘80s?

Elliot Roazen

Warning Signs at End of an Empire: The eCommerce Babylon

Brian Lange

The Hyperculture: The Monoculture is Multiplayer

Phillip Jackson

Kumwashing: A Lament for the Kum & Go Brand

Jesse Tyler

Is Gap Good Again? Does it Even Matter?

Alex Greifeld

How to Lose a Customer in 10 Ways: An Anti-Pattern Guide to Creating Better Checkouts

Guides by Future Commerce

The Cultural Context of April Fool’s

Phillip Jackson

The Ultimate Eclipse Gift Guide

Erika Dyer

Customer Acquisition is a Multiplayer Game: A call for modern-day growth guilds

Mike Mallazzo

Heavenly Bodies: Worldbuilding through Brand Collaborations

Angelica Frey

The Commerce Industry Needs Culture. Can SXSW Deliver It?

Phillip Jackson

5 Principles for Bigger Thinking

Phillip Jackson

The Pursuit of Cool in the Face of Commerce

Edmond Lau & Alexa Lombardo

Commerce Captivity: The Violent Stasis of European Nostalgia

Angelica Frey

Monoculture in the Modern Age

Erin DaCruz

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Insiders: Weekly Digest & Essays for DTC Operators

Thanks to AI, the CEO Just Became an Individual Contributor

Before we build it, we have to envision it.

Brand Leaders in the Middle of an AI Culture War

Thanks to AI, the CEO Just Became an Individual Contributor

Walmart’s Collectibles Play is Showing Us Where Retail is Heading

Pinterest’s Big Pivot to "Intentionality" is Actually All About Commerce

Young Pet Parents Are Loving This 60-Year-Old Retailer

The “Quiet Season” Fallacy: Why Waiting for Black Friday is Destroying Your Retail Business

Where Were You When the Monoculture Returned?

Roots to Rock: How Two New York Icons Are Redefining Modern Community

Sticki Rolls is Turning Stickers into the New Social Currency

“Vertical Dramas” and the New Era of Commerce Media

The Alpha Effect: How Gen Alpha is Redefining Back-to-School Spending

Inside Miniso’s Quest to Be the Next Disney

Sensory Marketing: 3 Trends Driving the Next Era of Brand Engagement

What’s Driving the Infantilization of Retail?

The Millennial Breakdown is Driving a Cultural Uprising

Your Digital Flagship Needs an Architect

Our Post-Funnel Future: Brand Ethos is the New Competitive Moat

What Kiko Milano, Clarks, and Fiorucci Are Doing During the AI Revolution

The London Brief: Whisper or Shout? London Retail Has Both

Confidence is a Colorway: GLP-1s and Fashion’s Fight to Keep Up

The Process is the Product

[Member Brief] The Power of the Modern Commerce Department: Every Fable Has a Moral

Commerce Has a Humiliation Fetish

The Backrooms and the Cultural Capital of Color

Nike Is Embracing the Mess: Inside the Brand's New World Cup Campaign

[MEMBER BRIEF] The Cost of the Future: Who Gets to Participate in the AI Era, and Who Doesn't

Seize the Moment: How B2B and B2C Brands Are Buying Their Way into the Experience Economy

The Hunt for Identity and the Teen Media Renaissance

Peacocking in Public

May the Fourth Be Borrowed

For Love of the Game: Commerce and the Culture of Sport

[POLICY BRIEF] The Halo Effect of the New Economy

Vision as a System: Building with Legacy, Culture, and Intention

Member Brief: Return on Experience and the New KPIs of Store Design

Non-Determinism and the Death of Performance Marketing

Shoptalk 2026: Where Conference Takeaways Became Cultural Strata

Has AI Reset Maslow’s Hierarchy?

NRF’s State of the Consumer: Gen Z Is Shopping Their Way Through Uncertainty

Shoptalk 2026 Side Events and After Parties

Shoptalk 2026 Floor Plan: Interactive Exhibitor Map & Booth Finder

The Collapse Of Brand Authority & The Rise Of The Yapper

What to Expect at Shoptalk 2026: The Complete Guide

Table for One: Inside the Strange, and Very Real World of AI Dating

Shoptalk Las Vegas: The Complete Attendee Guide

Insiders #100: A Retrospective

Announcing: Visions 2022

Archetypes Event Recap

Your Body is a Dataland

Victoria's Biggest Secret: Sustainbility

INSIDERS 001: The Future is What You Make Of It

Target's Future-Proofing Strategy

The Future, Realized

On the Power of Belief

Not All Friction is Bad

Unplugging from the Attention Economy

Capitalism: The Attention Economy Solution

Audience-First Commerce is Your Terroir

Local Business: The Antidote to Surveillance Capitalism

Shop Like It's Your Job

"So Close to Being Complete"

Merchants Cannot Live By Brand Alone

Feel-Good Retail

On Replica Sneakers and the Value of Art

How to Lose a Customer in 10 Days

The Overkill Economy

On Rivalries and the Sociology of the Underdog

Who Lines Up On Black Friday?

Meet CARLY

Consumerism stinks. But you smell AMAZING.

New Decade, New Boundaries

Have we stopped dreaming of the future?

If you're discounting to keep customers, you've already failed.

"Plussing" in eCommerce

The Invisible Social Contract

eCommerce Podcast Roundup 2/14/2020

The Honor System

The Terrible Timing & Missed Opportunities of Retail Seasonality