Episode 42
August 24, 2017

The Art of Crowdsourcing Innovation

Caleb Light of Power Practical shares his experience on Shark Tank, finding new success with Amazon, and partnering with Mark Cuban Companies.

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this episode sponsored by

Brian: [00:01:06] Welcome to Future Commerce, the podcast about cutting edge and next generation commerce. I'm Brian.

Phillip: [00:01:11] And I'm Phillip. Today, we have the Robert Scoble with us. Robert. Once you go ahead and introduce yourself.

[00:01:22] I don't know.

[00:01:23] You know, I'm a futurist, I guess, as you would call me a tech journalist. And I go around the world and talk to people who are building the future. I've been very blessed to be able to do that for, I don't know, a few decades now. I had the first ride in the first Tesla. Siri was launched in my son's bedroom and many, many companies have been leader or first to see and to show my readers on Facebook and Twitter and all that.

[00:01:55] And if if his name sounds familiar, you've probably heard Robert on on many places like Twit Tech TV and from from, you know, many, many other sources. His own blog. His own blog, Lizer. You can't kemmis that one. So it's a pleasure to have Robert on. And we want you to leave your voice with us about today's podcast to make sure that you do that and you can do that best on Future Commerce dot F.M. and hit up the discuss coming box for the episode on that site. You can also subscribe to listen to Future Commerce on Apple podcasts. Formerly I Tounes Rest in Peace and Google Play. You can listen from any Amazon echo device on tune in radio with the phrase Alexa Play Future Commerce podcast. All right. So, Robert, you. There's a million things that we could talk about with you. I don't even know where to begin. But, you know, for those who are not familiar. Could you. Could you give us, like, the two minute backstory and tell us a little bit about how you came to be a futurist?

[00:02:59] Part of it is like my dad was an engineer and got hired out of his out of college at Ampex in Silicon Valley. And he moved us to Cupertino in 1971 for Apple Computer, started up in Cupertino. And so when I got to junior high, we we were I was at Hidir High and we got our first Apple 2s. And so I was in the first computer club there and my dad bought Lange. So that's part of it. And then part of it is just falling in love with new things and and working on journalism for three or four decades now and getting around and seeing some really cool things. But a lot of it is lack of being here. If I if I wasn't in Silicon Valley, I bet I would be doing something else. You never know. But, you know, because there's other tech journalists from around the world. But it sure is a gift to be here.

[00:04:00] Nice. And you've been able to focus really heavily on on augmented reality and virtual reality tech. And, you know, due to quite a bit of your journal journalism about those particular pieces of tech, then makes reality. I guess you could you maybe give our listeners a quick rundown of the history, you know, of the evolution of augmented reality? It's really tech.

[00:04:29] I just met the grandfather of augmented reality and he got I guess he first did his first augmented reality in nineteen sixty five.

[00:04:38] So I'm not going back all the way.

[00:04:41] Maybe it's just a memory Google Glass or something like that.

[00:04:46] The first one that I remember that it made an impression on me. I went to my TYO in Germany in 2011 and the CTO there was showing me monsters on the sides of skyscrapers. And Apple then bought that company a few years later and met TYO. Matteo's tech is the core of what's coming in the next IOW 11:00. So it goes all the way back to like, you know, late, late, twenty two thousands early 2000s, the 2010s when this stuff was, you know, just coming out of R&D labs and starting to get interesting. But you can see how long it takes for technology like that to show up in consumer products.

[00:05:36] It's funny because you say seven years ago, like it was really, really long time ago. And the tech world that is. But really, it's like seven years ago.

[00:05:47] It's like a long time now that it's it's not that long. And a lot is happening at sea. At four years ago, I got it. I interviewed the founder of Prime Sense, which made back then made 3D sensors. And he showed me a a sensor that from. Three feet away could tell how hard I was pressing on a table and he showed me a bunch of other demos and then I had his cut.

[00:06:13] So I started seeing this pattern like a way of saying apples. By doing all these weird stuff. What are you doing? You know, why do they need a 3D sensor? And then they are coming in and it is detecting company. I mean, they buy the whole bunch of companies. So coming together.

[00:06:30] And that's part of it is understanding how companies think. So I worked at Microsoft for three years. And so I understand how big companies sort of react to markets and how they think things through and how committees work and playing it together. Oh, wait a second. There's a. These guys are about to bring a big iPhone because they know they started patent, started showing up and a rumor started showing up and my friend started talking about it. My my best friend was one of the 12 guys who built the first iPhone. So we'd talk about it all the time, like, what's this industry doing?

[00:07:04] Wherever that that helps. Helps. Yeah. Oh, for sure.

[00:07:09] Like I said, it helps to be in Silicon Valley. You know, I'm walking distance down to Space X and Tesla is best investor and two doors down as an executive assistant for Facebook. It's just crazy. GoPro is started on one side of my house. It's it's it's nerd heaven here is well.

[00:07:34] And not only Apple is Apple investing, which you see a lot of other major tech players investing as well. You've got Google that's heavily invested in magically big. You've got their building.

[00:07:46] They got it. I think Google is probably the more most aggressive mover because they've invested in VR. They have Google tilt brush and Google Maps, Google Earth. And they just announced the same color Google Docs on on Oculus Rift and HTC Vive just last week. Right. So they're they're making aggressive moves and they're going to use the A.I. that they developed for the self-driving car to be the basis of their mixed reality glasses when they come along.

[00:08:18] So it's the next few years you get to see some crazy things.

[00:08:23] Yeah, I believe that. Although I've been I've been waiting for some crazy things for a while. Like, especially with Magic Leap.

[00:08:30] I remember the latest rumor from inside the company is that they're going to come out with a developer preview probably by the end of the year, closer to the end of the year, some December.

[00:08:42] So for those who are not initiated, could could someone explain what magically because there's a R augmented reality, which means you're seeing through the optic or through the phone to the real world.

[00:08:53] Right. And you you've got a little taste of that with Pokémon guy. When you looked at the phone, you would see the virtual Pokemon on top of the real world. These things are augmented reality glasses that they're developing. I call mixed reality glasses, but magically calls them spatial computing glasses. And they let you see a next generation augmented reality, augmented reality that actually stuck to the tables that you're looking at or or properly occluded. So when a virtual actor or a cartoon cartoon character runs around the table, it looks proper. And someday it will also be joined with A.I., which then will learn everything about your what you're looking at. So in front of me now is a couch in a coffee table and a regular table. An executive table. Right. If it knew those things, then it could put virtual things on top of those things much more accurately than, let's say, the whole lens Microsoft Lens does today. So my is I just brought up Paul Lens. Hollins is the first example of one of these mixed reality glasses that really does this kind of room tracking. We call it slam based tracking or for simultaneous location and mapping. This is a technique that was developed for the Mars rover so that the rover could navigate around the surface of Mars without human interruption, because if we if we see it going toward a cliff and we tell it stop, it takes 12 minutes for our topside to get up. It's already over the cliff a head. So as to see the cliff before it gets to the cliff. And it has to know what to do before it gets there. And by the way, this is how self-driving cars navigate through the world and how robots do it now. Drones soon. And we'll do it if if they're not doing all right. Well, the DGI spark is using a Mobius chip to see the world and see objects and fly around. Trees were stopped before they hit something. And they use similar. Seeks to slam. So if not slam.

[00:11:10] Yeah. So we can go along. He's our guy.

[00:11:18] We like the nerd. Bring all the nerd.

[00:11:20] Yeah. Please. Yeah. This is the audio.

[00:11:23] We also know a lot of people have heard magically and but there are some other companies out there that are, you know, piloting some of these glasses. There's Medda. I think you've documented Medda to some degree and I think had design group. And there are a few others out there that are that are really pushing forward on this front with the disappeared already.

[00:11:45] Right. That are trying to get into this game and gone. What would be an example that there was one that just went away a couple weeks ago? I forget the name now. Cassaday are, you know, so there's companies that thought they had something going, gets funding and then realizes, though, we are not going to be able to compete with Apple and Microsoft and, you know, SNAP and Amazon and Google and not mention all the Chinese companies because really the poster said Apple right now, I wouldn't be wearing them already except for the Chinese. So I would be wholly thinking about how is the Chinese going to use their supply chain against me and their internal market because their internal market is much more V.R. heavy and much more interested in mobile than American market is human, right? When they don't use business cards, they scan each other's week. That does happen here in America.

[00:12:50] Now we still use business cards, which is mind blowing to me. Yeah.

[00:12:55] Oh, habits die hard. True. True.

[00:12:59] Yeah, I know. I can tell how unbelievably excited you are, Brian.

[00:13:04] My what you touched on something that Robert that I think is really important, especially for our audience, because, you know, we've we sort of centered a lot of our future discussions around retail and its impact on retail and how technology is impacting commerce.

[00:13:19] And I think that, you know, at the end of the day, you know, what we always try to drive back to is where it is, where does potential commerce component come into these things?

[00:13:31] And and I think you you you touched on a couple there.

[00:13:35] You know that the commercial opportunities in China are immense, especially being, you know, a digital native society and, you know, this incredible growth that's happening in China and in millennials and adopting in the adoption rate being just incredible technology. So my my my guess, based on what you said, is that a lot of the technology breakthrough that we're going to see and the mass market adoption not happening in North America is happening in China.

[00:14:08] A lot of it will come here pretty quickly. But I you know, I'm watching companies, right. Big companies battled it out. And China has some advantages that they haven't had before. They have a huge internal market now. I think seven hundred twenty one million Internet users in China. America only has three hundred eighty million citizens. So their market is way bigger than that. Our market is just in terms of sheer size. And then you look at the supply chain and their ability to drive price into the ground. And a good example is this it in front of me? I have an insta 360 three at 360 degree camera. When I was the first person to use a camera like that at Coachella, my camera cost about six thousand dollars. And this camera now costs two hundred dollars so they can apply. And. And this is a new company out of China. They can build things faster and cheaper than we can afford than anybody can write.

[00:15:13] A little livestream 360.

[00:15:15] Yeah. Favorite. Turn that on for two. Two months ago and. Yeah. Two hundred dollars. You slide it on your iPhone or your Android phone. There's they have another one called the Insta 360 Air. These are small little cameras and you put them on them on your phone and now you're shooting in 360 degree.

[00:15:31] It's pretty cool. And yeah, you nailed it. YouTube and Facebook ads and Periscope all support 360 video. And there's others. But those are the ones that matter.

[00:15:43] You know, we've got to do a little a little podcasting live in 360 video just a couple of months ago. And that through YouTube. It was a pretty interesting experience. It was very cool.

[00:15:55] Yeah, was anything but easy, you know.

[00:15:58] It's getting there. It's still a little early adopter and the ones with Facebook the resolution just just aren't there. And unfortunately, because you're using a camera companies app, you don't see a lot of the things that you would see on the normal Facebook app side.

[00:16:19] In reality, it's really tough to do. For me as an influencer. It would be great for a kid's birthday party or something like that. But my expectations are higher when I'm doing these things right now.

[00:16:34] Right. Yeah. And I kind of get back on on the train that Philip was on there. You know, I think we're all kind of looking forward to what we have ahead with glasses and what we able to do from a commerce perspective there. In the meantime, we sort of have our lights and even that is still fairly fairly. It's not very well adopted here in the US. Like, Snapchat is obviously doing some some basic stuff and obviously they're spectacles. Ah, ah, ah. You know, kind of groundbreaking, but they're still fairly rudimentary. But, you know, you kind of have to have the right phone to even really utilize a lot of that sort of a, ah, you know, Google Tango type technologies on your own.

[00:17:22] That'll be really interesting to see when Apple comes out with the next iPhone. They have three different models, but the high end one has two 3-D sensors, one front facing, one back facing. And it'll be real interesting to see the kinds of things that Apple enables with that phone and how fast developers start to really use this, those sensors to do interesting things because it is a small percentage of the market, you know, even on iPhone. You know, modern iPhones, there's gonna be somebody figured out there's going to be about 200 million people running IOW eleven before the phone comes out big in in phones that can run the aiyah kit or the platform that does augmented reality. And that requires a fairly modern phone, a six ass or a six s plus or a seven plus or seven. Right. And I don't think it goes back to five. I might be wrong by that. I have to look that up. But anyways, it's 200 million phones, which sounds like a big number. And it is when you compare it to VR because VR, like I'm looking at an Oculus Rift right now. That's only that sold less than a million units like that. Right. And latest number. So, you know, 200 million units is more interesting, but this is still only a portion of the entire phone market. So this is a multi year process seat. Even if it's hot next year and all the influencers are talking about it, you know, it'll be a while before it really gets broad based support from Android and and everybody else.

[00:19:14] What I'm really, you know, kind of come back to is like I'm this is all well and good. I feel like we like. I'm still waiting for Apple to open source. Bon jour. Like they said they would like it. So. So it's like, what, Daikin, go ahead and march forward and do all this really cool stuff. You know, some of that groundbreaking stuff that happened last year is still not yet picked up and run with by developers. So. So it's going to hinge entirely on the developer community. I mean, nevermind with the NPD Group says about, you know, Google or Oculus, you know, sales.

[00:19:47] I think having having the capability is one thing. You know how many I message API based conversational commerce. You know, apps are there that exist. Well, that, you know, that capability has been built. And I message now for over a year, nobody's picking it up and running with it. And that's frustrating to someone who see. So it's such potential in the market. Like myself, I see so much potential in the market for really transformative commerce experiences that are happening on these devices. But yeah, but the developers have to pick it up and run with it and create engaging reasons.

[00:20:24] I think this is going to be different for a few reasons. One, it's very visual. And if you've been watching any of my Twitter or Facebook, you've seen lots of examples of market apps that have come out in the first couple weeks because it keep in mind this this technology has only been on the market for two to three weeks since Apple at its W-W D.C. developer conference. And already you're seeing some really interesting apps. One guy built a measuring tape out, say you you hold up a virtual measuring tape up on your wall and it tells you how wide that wall is. Another guy made it so that you could aim your phone at your Tesla and see different kinds of colors which the auto industry will really need. You come into the virtual showroom.

[00:21:14] You want. Here's what it looks like. You can order it if you want.

[00:21:21] And there's others. You know, there was one app to teach somebody to dance with footsteps on the on the flop floor in front of you, stuff like that. There's some really interesting playing around, but there's nothing that's come up to the level of Oh my God killer app. But but all of these require you to hold your phone in front of you in a new way that most people don't do today unless they're playing Pokemon. And even if they're playing Pokemon, they're not doing it for very long. These things are going to get you to really hold your phone up a lot, to do different kinds of things. And shopping is a good example. If you walk into the shopping mall and say, Siri, tell me where the blue jeans are in this mall. Why doesn't that put a blue line on the floor taking into the blue jeans? Right. And that's coming the other day. Westfield Labs is working on that. They're the labs for many of the shopping malls in the world, and they know it's coming, but we haven't yet seen it. But, you know, if somebody walked into a shopping mall holding their phone up like that and not just looking at the old the usual way, you'll you'll notice that and you'll notice something really cool on the screen, you know, like a green line taking people around or something. And you'll be much more likely to ask a question like, what the hell are you doing?

[00:22:45] What is it? Oh, this is the new iPhone. Have you seen the new augmented reality capability or whatever you're going to say to your friends? You see new stuff yet on this new phone. It's cool. Sure. Yeah. And that'll get people going. Plus, it makes really great looking Facebook and Twitter page posts.

[00:23:02] So, you know, that's why they're getting a lot of heat because, you know, somebody is showing you something cool in augmented reality, makes for a good demo video. And that's not true of, you know, hey, pal, for instance, you know, I thought if we could get the world to use PayPal, I'd be great. But it's it's not that interesting for most people. I think it's going to be different, though.

[00:23:25] So I think you bring up one example of this experience where it's sort of directing you. Right. How else do you see it being applied to commerce?

[00:23:36] You know, I mean, there's pretty obvious ones to me, like additional product information or or experiences or discounts or, you know you know, that all display on your phone as you kind of hold them up, which, you know, will will allow for, you know, less packaging and.

[00:23:55] Yeah. But those are boring. Is this I don't want to get excited or like Sephora. So, you know, in my intro I didn't explain. I wrote three books with Shel Israel. Each of each book has predicted decade decade long trends and the. It's the fourth transformation, which is all about this stuff. Augmented reality and A.I.. And we visited as R&D lab in San Francisco, where they have a full on store or inside a warehouse so they can test out all sorts of concepts and then different things. And they've they've put a lot of augmented reality into the current app on the current iPhone. You don't need to wait for this new stuff. And one of the things that they did is augmented reality lipstick's. So you could test out different kinds of makeup on your face because it had images of your face and then Wrap's virtual makeup around you. And that makeup is color matched and and matched to the physical product you would actually buy in the store. So if you tried pink lipstick and you like it, you go buy pink lipstick and it looks exactly the same on your face in real life as it does in augmented life, which tells you something. And they're also working with the signers. So you're going to walk around with your phone in a arm mode and look at signage and it would see a lot of the stuff that you're talking about, you know, extra information about the products or a video showing how it would be applied or something like that. Right. And and that's a good I think that's a good starting point for stores to start thinking about. Okay. You know, next year you're going to have a lot of people who are going to be looking to augment their world by holding the phone up and trying this new thing in the store.

[00:25:47] And what can it add to the customer experience and start getting people ready for this world where, you know, four years from now, me and you are all wearing glasses and we're walking in stores with glasses on and the glasses will react to the store and show us all sorts of stuff that's a little bit further away. Three, four, five, six years. But we know it's coming. We're seeing it coming out of R&D labs and getting ready to be shipped. So, yeah, it's a fun time. I see lots of examples like that. You know, once we get the full on, you know, if you think about a decade from now and you get full on glasses that you can talk to, that you can use ice sensors with. We have even talked about eye sensors. But Apple, Google, Facebook of all by sensor companies. So that tells you those are coming. And, you know, if we're walking around with a pair of glasses that we're controlling with her voice and our eyes and we can look at something and menus pop off that physical thing, then we're talking, you know, then we're going to see real explosion. And what what it means to be a retail store and what it means to build a fake virtual store in your living room. Right. Because I'd like I just buy the twenty two. Right. You see on on Amazon and the and the pictures are shitty site and you know, it just doesn't have much information. I'd love a video demo of that P.c site is from a really user. So I know it's, you know, it's just as bad as all the specs make it look like it's bad ass, right.

[00:27:23] Yeah. In home, shopping is definitely going to happen as a result. What about. What about. So we talk a lot about you, but in reality, if you can build some of this stuff.

[00:27:34] Wal-mart's hiring, Amazon's goes hiring for this area. We should talk about Autodesk and on and on. So, you know, if you if you have a computer science skills, you're fully employed if you want to be in this industry.

[00:27:52] Yeah, for sure. You mentioned, you know, stores, you know, shopping, virtual shopping within your home. And I'm I'm I'm sort of on record as being skeptical of what that looks like.

[00:28:05] You know, if you need a trend, you get your Amazon y, you know, morphic.

[00:28:12] I don't have I don't have any Amazon Lange prior to this guy.

[00:28:17] There is. I know it is. We we are discussing this unprime day, you know, and this is what's really great about Prime Day is, you know, never discount a a technology adoption driven entirely by manufactured holidays that have, you know, built in and say to myself, if I seem distracted, if I seem distracted, it's because I'm I'm shopping at the same time, Major.

[00:28:44] But when I go out.

[00:28:50] But, Robert, I have to ask you, you know, what would you say to the people that think that there is a use case for shopping virtual aisles that are modeled after the real world as opposed to a, you know, some future paradigm in virtual reality space that could only ever exist in that space as being, you know, the right and appropriate setting for commerce.

[00:29:09] We used to call that SKU morphic design because because it was designed that that looks like the real world. Right. If you see a game, it has green felt because that's how card games are played. Right. And in virtual world, why do you need green? Felt like you make it purple, Cleo. And same thing's going to be true in a store. Why do you need aisles? If you're the only one walking down it, then? And why do you want even try to bring that into the into the home? But I can certainly see and I can I don't know if I want to set off everybody's a syrie or at do it, you know. Yeah.

[00:29:54] I mean we're already buying things. If I you might go. Hey, hey, Alexa. I need some toilet paper. It answers me back. Right. And says, hey, what would you like the charm and 20 ply you bought last time. Right. And with this new one that I'm talking about, it's twenty to twenty dollar a little gadget. If you have Amazon Prime, you get it for free basically, and it lets you scan the barcodes and that lets you talk to it because it has Alexa inside of it. So you can do the same thing. Can I buy some toilet paper and I need some milk too. And I need some Cheerios for the kids and, you know.

[00:30:32] And so now you're now you're buying and transacting without having a physical store at all.

[00:30:37] The physical stores, the land in your hand, if if there is a physical thing or the Lexar that's in your kitchen. Right. Even though you get mixed reality glasses into that mix, why do you need something that looks like a store?

[00:30:51] Think you're going to just talk to and say, can you show me the blue jeans that are available? And boom, boom, boom, boom. There's five pairs of blue jeans for my size with my body wrapped around my body. Because keep in mind, we're gonna have 3D sensor soon that we're gonna into them hazing things. I've already been imaged in a 3-D sensor so I could be 3D printed and stuff like that. But that's gonna happen with your iPhone soon, right? You're just gonna write Granny and yourself with an iPhone and set and scan yourself and put yourself into Amazon or Wal-Mart or wherever, and they're gonna show you clothes.

[00:31:30] You know, virtual clothes that are on you. It's standing in the living room in front of you. Right.

[00:31:37] And then we had the body Latson. What's that? You know, body labs. We had a body lab on there. They're doing some pretty cool stuff with 2D to 3D rendering. So you don't have to get a full body scan now. You can get a 2D like full, full, full body shot to the picture and they can actually extrapolate like what your what your body looks like from that 2D picture. It's pretty unbelievable. And they're using an A.I. to do that. And I think manager technology to to to sort of fill in the blanks, if you will. Yeah.

[00:32:14] To me, think the interesting thing about augmented reality is it's kind of a personal experience and you can kind of set, you know, different different things to see different things. And, you know, each person may or may not be seeing the same thing. But we also are looking at a lot of hologram technology coming up. How do you see sort of the interaction between a R and holograms? And, you know, holograms are sort of, like I mentioned, a shared experience without any tech necessary.

[00:32:45] Do you think Holga? That doesn't. And that's not necessarily true. A hologram is a 3D object, right? Right. At least in the context of augmented reality. So, for instance, in my Microsoft Howland's, I can select a shark and I could put a virtual shark right here in my living room.

[00:33:03] Sure I do. I'm talking about like, like technology. That's not a are like, like a hologram. That's just stand around like. Did you see that Cortana hologram. That was a demo at the latest build conference.

[00:33:19] That was Demo with a Howland's. Was that when you say hologram, there's the marketing term that Microsoft chances to define 3D objects that are in my whole lens. That's a hologram. When you talk to somebody in our industry who's been doing a holography for a long while, if you've seen a hologram, a real old school hologram on a on a photographic plate, that's that's a hologram. Right. And it shows you depth with with one shot. It doesn't need a lot of data. It's a little different, but it's very similar. I'm starting to see monitors that are coming along that use the old style holographic technique of showing you a 3D object on a standard tutee monitor. And that is going to be really interesting. Yeah, but I don't think it'll get to the place where. But I can't say because those those monitors might be put in front of your eyes.

[00:34:18] And I've seen you're getting a really amazing 3-D imagery with with, you know, monitors that look like they're 2D monitors. We haven't yet seen those demonstrated in a real way yet.

[00:34:33] The guys who build the red camera company just announced a holographic phone. But I don't know that that's truly holographic. They didn't demo the screen. They just said it's a holographic screen. So we have to see a demo of that and understand the technology before we can call it real old school that the holographic for sure. A cry by anybody who's seen one of those holograms in a museum or something like that that's done on a photo plate, that's done with lasers on a piece of photographic film. And they're beautiful, right? You can walk all the way around and get a look at that 3D thing or that image from all the different points of view that you can. And anyway, now that I understand what you're asking. I didn't see that one demo. I thought I did. I thought it was on a hollow hole. And so and so it's a mixing of these terms a little bit for. Which makes soft is doing it, you know. Sure. They call their virtual reality headsets mixed reality because they're using the same sensor technology that's in the hollow lands to make. The inside out tracking work and to me, that's blurring the lines of the terms beyond what they really should be.

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[00:37:37] Yeah, new technology always there's a little bit of this problem, even when new techniques in in commerce sometimes have that problem like Perth, it's really hard because, you know, Mellgren, an academic, actually defined all these terms for the industry and we've been fairly well understood. But when Microsoft did that, they broke the the academic term. And I wish they hadn't because it makes it a lot harder. It makes it a lot harder to do stuff like what we're doing right now. Trying to tell people what this stuff is. You know, it's hard enough because how do I explain a virtual shark on my living room floor that you can walk around? It's bad enough when you have this or explain it in a way that people understand it. And then when we add this terminology and all that, people get really confused pretty quickly.

[00:38:31] Yes. I can't help but think that I'm gonna go out out of out of the commerce realm here for a minute, but I can't help but feel that a lot of the experiences we're gonna we're gonna take on and I don't know that I'll be in our home or if they'll be elsewhere because they they will they will require a fairly hefty investment to actually bring into your home.

[00:38:51] But maybe experience centers with VR where you actually, like, live a full story and there will be like a full on haptics experience that, you know, includes maybe even like mood enhancing drugs and different things that affect your emotions and, you know, different ways to to experience like an end. And this is strictly symbolic.

[00:39:13] But start. Let's stop and talk about this for a second. It's a topic I like. I like talking about Pfizer's head of innovation, Pfizer. The drug company says augmented reality is a drug. They're doing studies on all simers, ADHD, depression, pain and autism and other things. And they're finding early promising results and all of those. There's a University of Washington study done with burn victims about pain. And they found that B-R is more effective at that kind of pain than morphine is. So VR and they are is a drug.

[00:39:55] You don't know how to experience drugs.

[00:40:01] And in fact, I visited a doctor down in South Africa. Sheryl Lee, Caulder. She runs eye Jim ARCOM. She works with professional athletes and she fixes their perception system. She's brain hacking. And she shows you a pattern on a screen. And it fixes your eyes.

[00:40:21] In other words, light is a drug. It's something that changes your brain. So we have even started really understanding how all that works and where the end of it is. Right. We've only started doing that. A lot of this kind of work lately. And so, yeah, I I'm quite convinced this is the beginning of a new field called brain hacking. The glasses are going to help you experience life in a new way. And where are we going to go from there? Yeah. I mean, no, I mean is one of the companies in our book and they do a whole bunch of brain sensors around the the VR headset so it can start to integrate with your brain. So now you're already seeing people talking about building new kinds of interfaces where you think something and a menu pops up or you you think something in a blog post appears.

[00:41:25] Right. That's freaky. It's freaky for me to think about it. But I've seen early attempts at getting there and I'm pretty convinced it's not too far off, you know. Is it 10 years off? Probably less.

[00:41:44] Mm hmm. Well, in the meantime, we've got, you know, earbuds, which which was actually a pretty big step forward. I feel like towards having a A.I. in our ears that all times, you know, getting people used to the idea of interacting with an AI, you know. And like they would of a person on a phone, if you will. And so I think, you know, with a ah, you've already said it, we're gonna be using our voice to do most of our controlling interaction and voice. First interaction is going to become much, much more pervasive way of interacting with technology. Philip, you've been quiet for a while. You have some thoughts. You want to you want to interject here?

[00:42:28] Yeah. I mean, I think this is all well and good. But, you know, the cynic in me, you know, sort of makes me wonder, you know, we're we're on this wonderful streak of progress. We've had, you know, pretty much almost ten years of uninterrupted economic growth. And I just have to wonder, you know, one day the Fannie's and Freddie's and the Lehman Brothers happened and they are in VR space and a lot of things just come crashing down.

[00:42:58] You know what? What are the kinds of things that you can you know, maybe you could prognosticate a bit, Robert, about, you know, what are some of the pitfalls that might be out there that might interrupt that kind of mass market adoption or or the rapid, accelerated pace that we're on right now?

[00:43:15] That that changed the question rapid at a pace.

[00:43:20] The early adopters are going to use this and use it in a big way. I'm wearing a pair of glasses probably in the next twelve months, and I'm I'm going to wear them all the time, like I wore Google Glass. What is going to keep it from going mainstream quickly is resistance to glasses. A good number of people, when I talk to him say I'm sorry, I don't care how cool they are, I'm never gonna wear glasses. I'm like, well, you're gonna be other huge disadvantage eventually to everybody else and you're gonna be convinced to wear him. But let's go with that.

[00:43:51] I've heard this before. By the way, in many other contexts. Oh, never use e-mail. If anyone's heard this before the time before e-mail. But I remember when when I brought e-mail to the office and say we were switched to use an e-mail. And they're all like, what's e-mail? Oh, you send memos electronically to people. Oh, why do we want to do that? The paper ones are working just fine. All right. And of course, everybody in the world uses e-mail today. Kids at college said, oh, nobody needs a Macintosh computer with training wheels on it. Now they all use Macintoshes. Right. Or windows machines that do the same thing on. And I'll never do Facebook. That's such. That's for you know, that's stupid. That's for social media douchebags. What I do. Whatever it is. Right. And I know that people change behavior. Helda, the CEO of Ford, said nobody is ever going to buy a self-driving car. I said, you're stupid. First of all, why would you ever make a statement like that? Right. Because you know how stupid that statement might look. The world changes.

[00:45:02] The world is right with Microsoft. If you go to their history museum. They have a wall of quotes. You know, things like the patent office believes there's never, never going to be an interesting patent. You know that stuff like that. Right. Even Bill Gates getting quoted. The world doesn't need more than six hundred forty K around that. He claims he never said that. But it sounds like something that he might have said, you know, sort of. Why do you need so much RAM sort of jokey, maybe even. But I business startup in Israel, they have Orvil writes, quote, on the wall and says nobody will ever fly from I think it was from Dallas to Paris. And of course, that happens like twice a day.

[00:46:01] Like like is the great example.

[00:46:04] You know, Woke can't. It's really hard for people to think about how the world is going to change and then how behavior is going to change when it does change. So when you say I'm never, ever going to wear a pair of glasses. Well, don't you want as many monitors around you as you want? Now, maybe don't you want to be able to look at, you know, a NASCAR race and see where Danica Patrick is on the track and see all the cameras and see the temperature tire of her tires and see, you know, everything about her car? Now, that sun circle, you know, don't you want to see an IMAX movie wrapped around all the way around you? Right. Why do you want to. You pay 20 bucks to go see an IMAX movie. Why? Because it's high rises and it's wrapped around you. Well, what if you could do that in your living room? You know, and then they start. Go, maybe you. Maybe. I don't know. I still don't want to wear glasses. Same thing. If you talked to, you know, a thousand people about self-driving cars. Oh, I'm a control freak. I like to try. What are you talking about? I'm never gonna let a car drive. I don't.

[00:47:11] You're not going to switch to the save your life, you know.

[00:47:19] Yeah. It's the famous Henry Ford quote of, you know, if you had asked somebody what they wanted, they'd tell you, you know, they they want a faster horse or something. It's like, you know, date we can't even divine the consumer can't divine what it is that they need or want because they they can only think about it in the context of of of what they already know. And this breaks that context. It's totally this is totally it is not just a paradigm shift. It's it's it's massive disruption of life, as we know. And I do believe that there are we are on the verge of technology in the in in the first in the first wave of technology in our lifetimes that actually, you know, that will change human evolution.

[00:48:03] And I really believe that now. Now, now, whether that happens, you know, for good or for bad. I think it's happening and we're on a course to make it happen. I think the question you kind of bring it back to the original question, which is what do you see out there that could disrupt the adoption of this technology or is it just inevitable? Is it just going to happen?

[00:48:22] There's lots of problems. I mean, I've I've nailed it, nailed them out. Right. It's too nerdy. It's too expensive. It's too heavy. There's. Content. Blah, blah, blah. Sure. We know the problems. And each one of those problems is being worked on. So if you don't like today's product, stay alive for five years because they're going to be a whole lot different in five years. Know people can't really adjust to that. Right. I got kicked out a codecs booth in 1989 because Steve was like showed me his dye sublimation color printer with Photoshop 1.0 and a four hundred megabyte hard drive. I ran desk, all of which costs I think about, I don't know, one hundred thousand dollars. His printer alone was forty five thousand dollars. And today a seventy dollar printer does better. Right. So if he can't afford a rich, rich person's toys, just stay alive. You know, exercise a little bit and stay alive. Jack has 20, 30 years down the road. It's gonna be cheap. And then there'll be something else that's expensive that everybody wants to do.

[00:49:31] Speaking of exercise, augmented reality is gonna help with that.

[00:49:34] I think the Adobe is my friend and I are using VR and we're losing weight and not cause we're trying we're just using VR a lot. And when you're in VR, you're moving around. Yet you're getting sweaty. You're shooting things. You're running at things. You're swinging at things. If I play selfie tennis with myself, so I'm playing tennis with myself. All of which is exercise is just as fun. You know, we don't call it exercise. Yeah. Exactly.

[00:50:05] People that don't like exercise are gonna probably really enjoy exercise.

[00:50:09] But don't talk. Don't tell them it's exercise. Just say I hate this lap on this. Yeah. This time it's a drag. Doug, go for it.

[00:50:19] Here's some more drugs. And I tried drugs.

[00:50:24] Exactly.

[00:50:27] Which, by the way, we didn't talk about some of the downsides of addiction. I think it's gonna be one of the problems in here. You're going to see people who don't want to come out, particularly when we get really good a car or mixed reality, whatever you call it.

[00:50:41] The world is gonna be nicer at some level, at least the cool looking people have lots of stuff to do on the world.

[00:50:50] Right. You know, there's a poker mind over there. I got to go over there like some poker points.

[00:50:56] We talked about some other, you know, transformative places. We talked about how, you know, this is gonna change. I like how we culturally view technology and how appropriate it is to spend like how long you might spend. We talked to Sarcopenia threatening about that a few episodes back. And it's also gonna change, you know, how we think about, you know, housing and communities and, you know, how we award. And I we have a and, you know, there's a there's a lot of head arounds. And it actually I think there's a good example that's that's about to take take flight Facebook is gonna be developing. It's basically an entire village just outside their office. I'm sure you've you're probably aware of that. Yeah. And I can't help but think that they're going to. To building, um, opportunities to include augmented reality and other tech that they're working on as a part of the community and and sort of use that as sort of a flagship for usage.

[00:52:03] But you're not the only one side. The Warriors are building a new stadium. And we've talked with the head of innovation there about that. They're thinking about it. So there's a lot that's gonna come in the next few years along that route. Yeah. It's also keep in mind, aiyah, is just the user interface for everything, right? For your smart cities, for your Internet of Things, for your drones that are flying around, for your robots that are walking around or or navigating your world for your self-driving car. Right. The sun and years. Your glasses are gonna be how you control your world, how you get Uber to pick you up or left or whoever you like to use. How how to get Amazon to deliver groceries because they just buy Whole Foods straight on and on. You're gonna do it in the glasses because the glasses are gonna have a 3-D sensor that sees every barcode in front of you. Like, I'm I'm looking at a product with a barcode. If I was wearing glasses, it would see that barcode. Now we say, do you want to buy more of this? Do you want information on this? So do you want a video on how to put your ring darvill on the front door? We could show that to you, you know. Yes.

[00:53:20] So we ran late. Now, you know, retail had been seen this this kind of. And it's been pretty pervasive in the news. So probably. But retailers in quote unquote crisis right now. There's a lot of lot of disruption going on in retail and a lot of a lot of retailers are going out of business like major retailers that you wouldn't have expected.

[00:53:41] You know, I kid what I did because I worked in Arete.

[00:53:43] She started we went out of business because Best Buy put us out of business. Now Amazon is putting Best Buy out of business. So if you baby hey, you know Wal-Mart for all of us little people out of business and you and I say so fair play that Amazon is giving you a little a little bit of a discomfort at the moment because guys didn't and didn't work on innovating the way that they did.

[00:54:11] And you didn't see that the world was going to change and you couldn't change. This is the innovator's dilemma, right?

[00:54:18] How you see, you know, investment in augmented reality technologies. Should people be building their own experiences or should they be ready and beat to building to future platforms?

[00:54:33] Let's say in December, Mariotte announces a new augmented hotel, bring your new iPhone to the hotel and everything is augmented. If you're a Hilton, what does that mean? Oh, you're dead because already. Mary, I built the brand. Yeah. They're the ones who are innovative and cool, and they're the ones who are going to get the new customer. You're dead. By the time you figure out that you missed the boat, you're dead.

[00:55:00] Because if you have to start hiring programmers in December to compete with some with a competitor that's already 18 months ahead of you, you're dead. You're not coming back. Right. So either you innovate or you die in this new world.

[00:55:17] And if you're going to innovate and you're really going to innovate like that, the company, a kind of innovation, you're doing that internally. You're not doing that with just contractors or consultants.

[00:55:27] That's that's a pretty bold statement. So you're saying that. Sure. You know that retailers should be developing in-house in-house teams that have a discipline that are part of the business vs. bowing in consulting, you know.

[00:55:42] I wish I could. Well, Wal-Mart's hiring.

[00:55:45] I guarantee you that. I know people. I know the H.R. team at Wal-Mart. They're hiring. They. They know they're in trouble. And they are they're betting big on this stuff to try to figure it, figure out how to keep Amazon from keeping from taking over their entire world, because they're going to if they don't do something about it, sort of mid tier retailers like, you know. On a way in a lot of ways.

[00:56:15] They are. I have to hope if Scottie Vest.

[00:56:18] I just talked to Scott Jordan the other day and all of his sales, his sales on Amazon aren't going straight up and sales everywhere else are going straight down. So the writing is on the wall. Amazon is going to eat everything.

[00:56:31] So let's go get acquired. That's what that's what you're saying, Robert. You're saying this place. That's one exit possibility is to get acquired. But soon you're not going to have any value to acquire. It's an imperative now, right? I've been there. I was killed by Best Buy.

[00:56:48] I know how this game goes. It doesn't go nicely for small people, particularly ones that aren't innovative and don't stay relevant to their customers and don't try to build a better customer experience. You go away.

[00:56:59] Yeah. No, I mean, I think that that, you know, your words are have had more truth in them than I think a lot of retailers want to believe right now. In fact, we were just talking with another retail analyst recently who who kind of alluded to the same thing, which is, you know, I don't know. She would say quite the extreme that you're saying it, but not industry.

[00:57:22] So I don't have to go to the cocktail parties or there.

[00:57:26] I'm sure it's still going to take some heat over it and say, hey, I'd rather I'd rather be truthful and say, hey, your industry has a real problem and you're losing people and you're going to lose more in the future if you don't figure out how to do something really innovative and really forward thinking and bet the entire company on it. You're going away.

[00:57:51] Target, pay attention to everybody.

[00:57:55] Every manufacturer, every brand has to pay attention to this because in four years we're wearing glasses and we're going to look at products and we're going to see it happen on those products. And if the products don't make that happen, we're going to go. That's a lame product.

[00:58:09] I mean, that's there is a show title right there for you. I'm just going to transcribe that verbatim. You know, we we one of the things that we like to do is we like to do is bring, you know, bring some of the futuristic point of view. And we usually sort of close out the show with a what's your five year outlook? But I think that's like the entirety of this show has been really about that. So I would say I would almost kind of bring it back to right now. So. What do you would do if you had to give some let's say you aren't a retail analyst and maybe that's a good thing, so. Well, if you had to speak directly to merchants today, you say innovate or die, tell it. Tell us one way that that they can be innovating. Is it just focusing on R&D around and building internal teams to enable the new A?

[00:59:04] Ah, you know you know, this year we're getting iPhones to do augmented reality. And there's several things going on at one time. It's not just a car. If it was just say, ah, you might be able to just say, oh, that guy's an idiot. I'm not going to listen to him. But it's a I it's self-driving cars. It's it's a range of things that are just about to hit. And you're gonna see more technology change in the next five years than you've seen probably in the last 40. Right. So if I'm walking into your or even think about how people buy stuff. Think about Google assistant. Did you guys use Google assistant yet?

[00:59:43] All no time. Do you have a pixel? Yeah. Do you use it on your iPhone Android.

[00:59:50] Yeah. I'm doing it on Android. I don't have a pixel but I, we use it in aloe and we use it in other contexts as well for hangouts.

[00:59:57] See, I didn't. I had it on my pixel that I played around with a little bit. But I believe is an iPhone. So I. A month ago this thing came out on iPhone called Google Assistant, and I'm going to ask it, where are the best nightclubs in San Francisco?

[01:00:15] I got a few places and it lists Monarch DNA lounge art is set up. Stuff like that. And it has reviews so you can easily swipe over and see it. Oh, the cat club has a lot of four and a half star reviews. Cat Club. All right. That's a bar. It's not appropriate. So let's say monarch. Let's see what that does. OK, here you go. Has a vintage look. Well, the basement level serves as a dance club. That sounds good. Four to four point two stars, one hundred sixty three reviews. This is how we judge your business, right?

[01:00:52] Tomorrow, we're going to see how. Right. People are actually dancing on that club. And we're going to see live video from that club. And we're going to see sensor readings that are being read from all the clubs because it knows how how happy people are, because I've seen computer vision technology that can tell whether you're happy, sad, how old you are. Are you male or female? Right. Just from a standard old shitty Web camera. So someday soon that's going to show up here. So you have to build a nightclub. If you want my business as a nightclub potential customer. You have to build infrastructure into your nightclub and experiences to get people to dance. Get them happier and get the right gender makeup. Get the right sexual orientation into your club that you want to serve and all that.

[01:01:42] That's what it is for every business, because that's how we're that's how we're going to buy things in the future.

[01:01:49] Right. So if you're not thinking about how you're going to build experiences that are going to get lots of people to give you good reviews and and have a great time in your business or buying your your products or wearing them or whatever, you're not relevant.

[01:02:10] And that's a real problem if you're if you're not thinking like that.

[01:02:14] All right. Great place, then. Absolutely.

[01:02:18] Wow.

[01:02:20] Dat dat dat dat dat just brought it home, especially for me. And I'm I'm I talk about this stuff every day. You know, you have to put it in context sometimes of of real world experiences of how consumers engage with you and your brands. And to think of it in that, in that perspective, that's yeah.

[01:02:39] That's, that's, that's phenomenal.

[01:02:41] The reason I bought Google assistant up, it's it's the first time where voice recognition for me works 100 percent of the time. At least when I'm accurate. I called a piece of my first word. That's why the first time didn't work. I it.

[01:02:56] Pick up pick up my words even when I stutter. And that is mind blowing. Google Systems is amazing.

[01:03:03] Yeah. And why is it amazing? Because they have every Google search ever. And they built A.I. systems that look for those patterns in our speech. And it's really amazing to watch it because it'll flip a word once in a while. And when it does that, it's trying to fit your sentence into a pre known pattern where it knows it has an answer. Right.

[01:03:27] Yeah, well, yeah, that's incredible.

[01:03:30] So it's it is amazing. But that just got good enough this year. OK. Late last year for you pixel people. But an iPhone, we just got it a month ago. And it's. And I've been using it. I've been forcing myself to use it to understand how good it is. And it's stunning how good it is. Right. So now think about glasses. When we get glasses in three, four or five years, whatever. How much better is Google assisting? Could be than it is today. A huge amount.

[01:04:03] You sold me on one word, Google. And I'll tell you why. If you're a retailer and you're listening to this and you've been sort of yawning or rolling your eyes, I want you to think back to a year and a half ago, two years ago, when, you know, I was sitting across from you in a consulting role and I said every site needs to be full site SSL. And you said that costs too much money. And I don't see the benefit. And consumers don't understand that. We need a colorful badge that says the site is secure from their assigned.

[01:04:31] And, yeah, you know, every single one of you pooh poohed me on on it. But the moment that Google made it ranking, all of a sudden everybody compares about everybody cares about having full sized SSL. Nobody actually cares about the end result or the social good that's done by securing, you know, the site or any of that. Nobody actually really cares about security, let's be honest. But when it affects Google rankings and it drives traffic and it's the thing that's going to give you the edge over your competitor and it becomes a requirement for you to do business. Absolutely. You want that, you wind up implementing full site SSL. So and as Google goes, so does everybody else. And that's where we're at. That's where we're going to be.

[01:05:10] So here's a hint about Google. They bought a company called I Fluence last year. And when Jim Margraf, the founder of Influence, showed me it, he had me pull a bunch of stuff out of my pocket instead. Just look at it. Look at it with the glasses. He got me and I pulled an iPhone six plus out of my pocket, put it on the table and I looked at it and two menus popped off the side of the iPhone. One said that's an iPhone success. Plus, would you like more information? And that the other said this is six ninety nine on Amazon right now. Would you like to buy it? Only with using my eyes, not touching it, not anything else. So it's using a to know what most of the products are in the world. And you can look at them and a menu will pop off those products. So if you're not thinking about this stuff, this is isn't this is an R&D lab. It's coming in the next 36 months. Google is building a new kind of operating system that's going to do a lot of amazing things like that. And you're seeing signs of it this year. Right? Yeah. If you didn't see the word lends out that they showed off it at its developer conference, where where you just aim your phone at a store front and it tells you about the store, you're not paying attention and you're not thinking through what that means.

[01:06:33] Yeah, actually, Samsung hit that first with Bixby vision, which there's been lots of examples of this.

[01:06:41] But like you said, when Google does it, everybody has to react. Right. And if it if you're behind. Yeah. Because you have been investing in this stuff and you haven't or even just didn't reading about it and thinking about it, you're behind and you're going to be slammed. Plus, hiring a unity programmer today is pretty cheap in two years. It ain't gonna be cheap.

[01:07:05] That's that's where it comes down to, I think. And it's a great place for us, I think, to wrap, which would be you are at a disadvantage as a retailer if you're not. These things now in organizing your business to mobilize and be able to pull the trigger when it becomes a no longer is just, you know, an early adopter, but it's becoming, you know, part and parcel of doing business.

[01:07:24] And we know the masses are coming. The man in the mask change is coming. I can't promise it'll happen in twenty nineteen or twenty twenty or twenty twenty one. But sometime between now and 2020, when you're getting self-driving cars full on fives five. Level five cars. You're getting mixed reality glasses. You're getting a. That's kind of blow people's minds. Right. I'm starting to see it in products side by side security camera. The other day that that you can ask the security camera, can you show me all pictures? When my dog was on my couch. I just didn't know that because it uses a eye to recognize your dog and everyday lose weight. Your couch looks like because a couch is a couch and it can see your dog hopping on your couch. And now it can pull all the video snaps from the past two days of when your dog was on the couch. Right. And so now you can ask all sorts of stuff like can you show me when my kids get home key? Notify me that they got home. OK, so now you know, your kids came home an hour late and were smoking weed behind the backstop with their friends. Right. And then you can have a talk like with where you're supposed to be home at three. He came home at four or you can see all sorts of weird people coming into your house. Right. And you can turn on the video camera and see what's going on. We have video cameras in all my houses that they may have rooms that I can turn on and watch, not my bedroom.

[01:08:49] So, yeah, yeah, you might catch the naked pictures. You go into the kitchen, but you didn't to catch that. But, yeah, that's.

[01:08:58] And in that, you know, it's interesting that if you want, again, a real world, this is happening right now. Example, you know, right now go to your Facebook and I want you to type in, you know, your sister in law's name and then the words in a bikini and then prepare to be shocked and amazed that Facebook will deliver every picture of your sister in law that's ever been in a bikini that's on Facebook. And that's that's the reality. Like that literally exists right now. You can do that today. Natural language search. On top of, you know, extensive amounts of image recognition and machine vision that have enabled us to have that sort of things. Very creepy example in today's world in today's context.

[01:09:40] And I think where it doesn't quite work that well on Scoble, you know. Oh, yeah.

[01:09:51] I'll give you that one. Brian. Brian, any any last words or thoughts here? Because I think it's these about wrap time.

[01:09:57] Yeah. Now it's been great, Robert. Where can people find you? We know what's the name of your book? One more time. Give us some final promotion here.

[01:10:05] The transformation. How are an A.I. is going to change everything. I'm on Facebook all day long. That's the best place to find me. But I'm also on Twitter and LinkedIn and email and all that. So awesome.

[01:10:20] Well, thank you so much for coming on the show. We had a great time. Lots of good stuff in this podcast. I'm really excited for our listeners to dig in. I personally was just having a blast. So with that. Thanks for listening to Future Commerce. We want you give us feedback about today's show, so please leave us some feedback on our website. If you're subscribed on iTunes, we'd love a five star review. You can subscribe to Future Commerce on what I should say, Apple podcast or Google Play or listen right now. Amazon echo with the phrase I like the way Future Commerce podcast with that, keep looking towards the future. Thank you so much.

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