The US administration changeover brought new policies, priorities, and economic uncertainties that reshaped consumer spending patterns in unexpected ways. Rather than reducing overall expenditure, uncertainty drove consumers toward familiar retail giants, concentrating summer spending into a group of familiar dominant players.

The numbers tell a story of resilience that borders on defiance.

Consumers spent $117 billion more in the first six months of 2025 than they did over the same period in 2024, according to GlobalData. To some, these results appear contradictory, but Managing Director and Retail Analyst Neil Saunders captured one clear truth: “consumer spending decisions are largely based on an ability to spend and a willingness to spend.” 

That nine-figure increase in consumer spending mainly went to established mega-retailers, who used synchronized sales events, membership programs, and supply chain advantages to gain a disproportionate market share during times of consumer anxiety.

Meanwhile, smaller brands were left reeling from supply chain issues and tariffs.

Lower gas prices, greater access to disposable income, and relatively steady job and stock markets painted a stable picture for consumers. (Or at least stable enough to justify retail therapy.) With that air of stability came greater confidence and a greater desire to spend. However, as we ventured into the traditional holiday months, clearer patterns began to emerge. Specifically, there was a visible pullback in consumer spending, a preemptive strike against inevitable price increases reported by key retailers, such as Walmart. The consumer psyche is operating on its own complex algorithm of optimism and anxiety.

This contradiction plays out even more dramatically in the travel sector, where consumers navigate the tension between wanderlust and fiscal prudence. It’s an economic FOMO that is amplified by the tidal wave of travel influencers touting their “must-visit lists” for the summer. While consumers demonstrate clear interest in planning vacations, they're striking a delicate balance between living their best lives (especially during warmer-weather months and annual holidays) and preparing for worst-case scenarios. Despite some positive domestic results so far this summer, US consumers are aggressively budgeting and looking out for last-minute deals. 

This Member Brief outlines retail and travel spending trends and patterns through mid-July 2025, mapping the cultural and economic forces that shape consumer behavior in an era of perpetual uncertainty.

May 2025

The Choreography of the Consumer Pull Back

Tariff threats have remained an ever-present force in consumers’ decision-making; a proverbial cloud over the summer sunshine. Early summer data from Klaviyo’s Consumer Pulse Survey pointed to Memorial Day as a potential inflection point in consumer behavior, especially as tariff negotiations dominated news cycles with the regularity of a prestige television series.

For example, although 68% of Americans were aware of the 90-day tariff pause on Chinese goods, half remained skeptical that it would lead to a positive outcome. Nearly three-quarters of respondents (72%) expected tariffs to drive price increases during peak holiday shopping periods, including Memorial Day, Independence Day, and of course, the holiday season.

The modern consumer has had to become an amateur economist by necessity.

88% of consumers consider sales crucial for summer purchases, with 41% waiting for promotions before committing.

- Klaviyo 

Many analysts have pointed to Prime Day as the new unofficial kick-off of the holiday shopping season. However, 31% of consumers surveyed by Klaviyo said they plan to take advantage of Memorial Day sales due to tariff concerns. Another 50% of shoppers said they were considering early holiday purchasing to get ahead of price increases and inventory shortages. We're witnessing the emergence of what some call  "anticipatory shopping.” Consumer behavior is dictated not by desire but by economic anxiety.

"Memorial Day weekend marks the first major shopping holiday where we'll see how tariff concerns are transforming consumer behavior. We may be entering a new retail landscape where Black Friday and Cyber Monday no longer represent the year's peak shopping moment. Memorial Day sales will be a crucial test case for retailers to understand this shift and reimagine their approach to key shopping seasons.”‍

- Andrew Bialecki, Co-Founder and CEO, Klaviyo

Adobe Analytics leveraged more robust behavioral data to determine whether Memorial Day would experience its typical sales surge. The team analyzed eCommerce transactions across more than one trillion visits to US retail sites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories to predict that, with discounts expected to range between 7% and 10% off listed prices, the deepest discounts would be found in the electronics, apparel, and sporting goods categories. 

Understanding consumers' relentless pursuit of value, Adobe predicted that 52% of online sales would come through mobile devices. While consumers enjoyed their Memorial Day getaways and barbecues, they made mobile Impulse purchases after receiving relevant, deal-driven messaging. A new caricature of the American Commerce Dream.

This shift represents more than cautious spending; it's the emergence of what we might call ‘anticipatory theater.’ A performance where consumers demonstrate their economic sophistication by gaming a system that seems increasingly game-like itself. Every purchase becomes a strategic move in an oligopoly where the house always wins, but players convince themselves that timing the market grants them agency.

Retailers responded to consumers’ anticipated behaviors with more aggressive discounting strategies, creating a feedback loop that elevated certain categories, such as air conditioners and children's apparel, to prominence. Adobe’s analysis of online shopping patterns indicated that early deals launched the weekend before Memorial Day (May 17-18, 2025) were already generating sales momentum. Children’s apparel, which is predominantly manufactured in China and other Asian countries, saw online sales up 56%. Similar upticks were found for bicycles (91%) and pool equipment (85%). Once symbols of care-free summer fun, these products now serve as proxies for economic anxiety.

Trend Patterns Impacting Memorial Day Retail Sales

But did shoppers actually show up and shop? 

According to the US Census Department of Commerce, retail sales cooled slightly in May, dropping 0.9% month‑over‑month. However, compared to the previous year, sales were up 3.3%, showing signs of long-term resilience. The grocery sector saw a similar sales dip in May (-0.8%), but had one bright spot: a 2.7% decrease in egg costs, although that is still 40% higher than this time last year. 

RRD retail and consumer behavior expert Chip West noted that the slight drop between April and May could be attributed to a “front-loading” of purchases ahead of looming tariff-driven price hikes. Of course, these sales were generated before the reciprocal tariff delays, which are throwing both retailers and consumers for a loop.

“Steady job growth, easing inflation, and a rebound in consumer confidence in May likely helped stabilize spending,” West said. “Retailers continue to adapt to shifting trade policies and economic conditions. Today’s cautious, informed consumer is carefully managing finances and prioritizing purchases. Near-term spending will closely track key economic indicators, especially shifting consumer sentiment.”

West emphasized consumers’ approach to navigating financial uncertainty, prioritizing deals over loyalty and focusing on discounts and promotions. “This environment is likely to accelerate early shopping behavior, with consumers starting their back-to-school and holiday purchases even sooner to secure the best value and ensure product availability.” 

He added: “Recent reports convey that financially stressed consumers will fuel a significant escalation in June back-to-class shopping, hoping to avoid any later possible rises in pricing. This may not only reflect those looking for deals on school supplies, but also college students wanting to distinctively furnish their dorms or apartments.”

The Travel Paradox: Wanderlust Meets Economic Realism

Travel serves as an honest indicator of consumer sentiment and economic confidence. When people stop moving, the economy's health becomes questionable. Memorial Day weekend traditionally marks the start of household travel calendars, making any deviation from typical tourism patterns a concerning signal for the summer ahead.

However, the US Travel Association found that May 2025 travel was mostly stable compared to the previous year, with domestic and overseas air travel, as well as hotel demand, all changing by 3% or less year-over-year. Skift’s State of Travel 2025 report noted similar trends nationally. Paradoxically, consumers' appetite for travel was actually growing during this period: 45% expected to increase their travel spending over the next 12 months. The gap between aspiration and action reveals the complex psychology driving contemporary travel trends.

June 2025

Retail Sales Slowdown?

Tariff concerns intensified in June, with key deadlines for best and final offers for key US trade partners creating a backdrop of faux urgency for the global stage. 

Consumer confidence may have wavered, but that didn’t stop consumers from spending. The June numbers were stronger than expected. While economists predicted an increase of only 0.2%, overall retail sales increased by 0.6%, according to the Commerce Department. 

However, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, which uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions, found that total retail sales (excluding automobiles and gasoline) were down 0.33% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 3.19% unadjusted year-over-year for June. These numbers are in contrast to the Retail Monitor’s May results, which increased 0.49% over April and 4.44% year over year. 

Sales were down in all but one category on a monthly basis, yet sales were up in seven out of nine categories on a yearly basis.

“June’s numbers indicate that prolonged uncertainty surrounding the economy, tariffs, and trade policy could be pushing consumers to adopt a ‘wait-and-see’ approach with their household budgets,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “This was the first monthly decline since February, and spending was down across almost all sectors. Economic fundamentals haven’t been disrupted yet, and shoppers still have the ability to spend on priorities, but the economy is gradually slowing, and there has been an impact on the psyche of consumers. While passage of the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ is clearly supportive of economic growth, unresolved and restrictive trade policies remain a significant headwind.”

Travel Dynamics Shift

Although travel demand remained robust throughout June, the economic landscape catalyzed a shift in how consumers approached their adventures. Their appetite for new experiences persisted, but they increasingly deployed budget-conscious strategies and even leveraged AI platforms for smarter planning. 

In some cases, consumers were unclear whether their plans would actually come to fruition. According to Bankrate research, 23% of US adults said they didn’t know whether they would travel at all in the summer, up from 18% the previous year. 

Meanwhile, international travel to the US remained strained, creating ripple effects for local economies and major tourist destinations, such as Manhattan, Los Angeles, and Miami. Most major markets, particularly Japan and China, are struggling to regain their pre-pandemic levels. This serves as a sobering reminder that global consumer behavior operates on different temporal scales than domestic patterns.

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July 2025

Pragmatic Patriotism

The July 4th holiday functions as one of retail’s most reliable cultural barometers. It’s a holiday where American identity and consumer behavior intersect with particular intensity. And with this year’s patriotic celebration falling on a Friday, there was a clear opportunity for consumers to get away for a long weekend. 

The month isn’t over yet, so we can’t share timely data on retail and travel performance just yet, but let’s explore initial plans and expectations. 

According to the National Retail Federation, 86% of consumers said they planned to celebrate Independence Day this year by attending cookouts (61%), venturing to fireworks and community celebrations (41%), and attending parades (12%), reaffirming the holiday’s clear intersection between culture and Commerce. Of those celebrating, 29% said they planned to purchase additional “patriotic items” outside of the grocery category. However, a survey from WalletHub noted that tariffs remained a steady threat, with 48% saying they were impacting their holiday plans. Even patriotism, it seems, operates within economic constraints.

Despite only 13% of NRF’s survey respondents planning to travel during the holiday weekend, AAA projected that 72.2 million people would be traveling 50 miles or more from their home over the holiday period (June 28 to July 6). The company also predicted that air travel rates would reach new heights this year, with 5.84 million US travelers flying to their destinations, a 1.4% increase over last year’s record.

Prime Day Establishes Commercial and Cultural Dominance

Once a significant milestone for retail sales, July 4 now serves as a prelude to retail’s new cultural phenomenon: Prime Day. 

Since its inception, this Amazon-manufactured holiday has achieved compounding sales growth and has achieved a remarkable level of cultural resonance. Most notably, it has convinced consumers to completely revamp their holiday shopping calendars around this singular, branded event.

Prime Day now influences back-to-school shopping and holiday purchasing decisions, demonstrating Commerce's ability to create temporal meaning from pure marketing.

The resounding success has even inspired other major retailers to join the fray and stake their claim in the high-stakes game for consumer attention.

Key sales events included:

• Amazon Prime Day: July 8 to July 11 (96 hours of exclusive deals) 
• Walmart Deals Event: July 8 to July 13 (early access on July 7 for members) 
• Target Circle Week: July 6 to July 12 (early access on July 5 for members) 

Early reports suggested a slow start, but all signs pointed to Prime Day being another major success for the broader eCommerce landscape. From July 8 to 11, Adobe found that retailers generated $24.1 billion in online spending, a 30.3% increase year-over-year.

The company also found that competitive discounts drove spending in categories such as appliances, where online sales were up 112% compared to June 2025. Other categories with strong growth included office supplies (up 105%); electronics (up 95%); books (up 81%); tools & home improvement (up 76%); home and garden (up 58%); and baby and toddler (up 55%).  

Amazon itself noted that it was its biggest event ever, with even independent sellers on the platform achieving record results. “This year’s extended Prime Day event delivered incredible savings to our members across millions of deals,” said Doug Herrington, CEO of Amazon Worldwide Stores, in a statement. “We’re thrilled to see record savings for our customers, who found great prices on the everyday essentials and products they love.”

The success of Prime Day 2025 represents more than consumers’ desire to shop. It demonstrates how the right combination of cultural, personal, and political influencers can meaningfully alter the psychology of shopping.

The $117 billion spending surge didn't democratize commerce—it concentrated power. Amazon's Prime Day didn't just break records; it proved that a single corporation could commandeer an entire season. Walmart and Target didn't compete; they synchronized their sales events like a well-rehearsed oligopoly.

The data tells a story more profound than increased spending: it reveals how uncertainty drives consumers toward the safety of familiar monopolies.

When anxiety strikes, shoppers don't seek variety—they seek the comfort of corporate reliability, even when that comfort costs them genuine choice. The summer's retail theater wasn't a performance of consumer power, but a demonstration of how a handful of brands have choreographed American shopping behavior into predictable patterns that serve their dominance.

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