Brands Apologize for Being Hot (It's Working)
Welcome to the calm before the storm, futurists.
It’s the day before Thanksgiving, and that means it’s the day before the holidays completely take over our collective mindset… and our wallets.
Sure, the dialogue has started long before today, with everyone weighing in on how the political and cultural climates will impact what we buy, and why, during the holidays. But one thing we don’t want to lose sight of is that it’s a time when some of our industry’s best ideas and experiences come to life.
Now is the time when merchants flex their creative muscles and test new ways to tell stories. It’s also a time when they elevate stores to create a collective feeling of joy and belonging. It’s why millions of people flock to New York City’s Fifth Avenue: to see the lights, hear the music, and share that they, like so many others, got to bask in that universal moment of holiday cheer.
In fact, our team will be doing the very same thing next week to do some real-time reporting on the trends emerging in the Commerce Capital of the World. (Reply to this message if you have a store they should hit up.)
Stay tuned for our findings over the coming weeks, including a special holiday-focused series of our Field Notes offering. We also just launched our latest installment, covering Montblanc’s Manhattan flagship, an experiential playground for collectors and everyday consumers alike.
Want to get access to our entire collection of Field Notes and even more proprietary data, analysis, and policy coverage? We’re offering a special end-of-year deal for new members: you can get an annual membership for only $50 through December 31. More details below. 👇
Our offices are closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving, but we’ll be back in action the next day to cover what’s happening on Black Friday.
— Alicia
BNPL Takes Over Pre-BFCM. Consumers have spent $79.7B the first 23 days of November, up 7.5% over the same period last year, according to new data from Adobe. BNPL payment options alone have driven $6.1B in online spend, a year-over-year boost of 10.3%. The company expects BNPL usage to ramp up throughout the season as retailers launch more deals and sales, making mobile the go-to shopping device once again.
Consumers are using BNPL across typical categories, such as electronics, apparel, and toys. However, Adobe also called out grocery, indicating that consumers are trying to stretch their budgets further and even embracing a bit of a YOLO mentality as they head into the holidays.
Unsurprisingly, AI was a big part of Adobe’s early analysis: the company found that AI traffic rose 830% YOY in the first 23 days of the season, and that when shoppers started on AI and landed on a retailer’s site, they were 30% more likely to convert.
Keep your eyes peeled. We’ll have timely updates on all things BFCM starting the day after Thanksgiving, including the latest data, analysis, and our hot takes on what consumers’ weekend shopping habits mean for the rest of the season.
The (Fake) Apology Bandwagon. If you’ve scrolled through Instagram lately, you’ve likely seen a barrage of brands apologizing for being so awesome. Ah, yes, another faux-sincerity marketing ploy to drive social media WOM and get practitioners to write LinkedIn thinkpieces about your brand. Here’s the thing, though… it works (at least for now): Bladder-support brand Uresta pulled in almost double its typical likes with its post.
Luxury fashion brand Rebecca Minkoff also saw generally positive feedback, with consumers embracing the not-so-serious angle. But other followers were confused, even concerned, until they read further. It’s a great way to hack attention, but is that return worthwhile at a time when consumers are quick to skim, share, and comment on content before fully contextualizing it?
This isn’t even a new tactic. Email marketers have been using the “Oops!” thumbstop for ages. We have been collecting and cataloging them for a while now.
The Gen Z Effect. Another round of retail earnings highlights some bright spots, especially among retailers who intentionally engage Gen Z consumers:
🫎 Abercrombie & Fitch. The company is maintaining positive momentum, despite Abercrombie's sales dropping slightly year over year by 2%. Total sales (+6.8%) and comparable sales (+3%) for A&F are both up, and Hollister has become a must-watch. The brand’s 16.3% year-over-year boost could tie into Gen Z’s love of all things Y2K-era nostalgia. Strategic reissues of key era items, like its iconic lace cami, have been a big draw.
✌️ Urban Outfitters. Brands across the portfolio saw gains for the quarter, but Nuuly, the subscription-service business, continues to see incredible growth. Beyond that division’s 48.7% YOY boost, Free People (+4.1%), Anthropologie (+7.6%), and Urban Outfitters (+12.5%) all posted positive results in their comps.
🖥️ Best Buy. The retailer’s focus on understanding and serving a fiscally strained consumer is paying off: it has raised its fiscal-year guidance following its latest results, which showed consumers upgrading and scooping up holiday gifts early amid tariff worries. Online domestic sales were up 3.5% YOY, while general domestic sales and overall sales were up 2.1% and 2.4%, respectively.
AEO Crowns Another Blonde. The brand is ending its year of outrage-fueling celeb campaigns with entrepreneur and queen of homemaking, Martha Stewart. (One could argue she’s another blonde with good [jeans]...) AEO is having Martha host a new content series, “Martha Wraps the Gifts in AE,” to harness her vast social following and elevated cultural relevance following the release of her critically acclaimed Netflix documentary.
Carol Needs Her Sprouts. Vince Gilligan’s new show, Pluribus, has an unlikely cameo: Sprouts, the organic grocer with 410+ stores across 23 states. The store is central to the third episode, “Grenade,” which finds the main character, Carol, visiting an Albuquerque location that she soon realizes is completely desolate. Sprouts is leaning into the inclusion by launching a campaign that includes app pop-ins that allow you to shop for Carol’s favorite foods. And by the way, don’t forget to click the ad to stream Pluribus now!
Turning Up the Heat. Campbell’s has placed a VP of IT on temporary leave after he was caught on tape saying only “poor people” ate the brand’s food. The audio recording in question was used in a lawsuit filed by a former cybersecurity analyst who was allegedly fired after complaining about the VP. The court case in question seems to have fallen under the radar since the media got its collective hands on the recording, which has the VP on record saying he no longer buys the brand’s products because “it’s unhealthy.”
ChatGPT Gets Deeper into The Purchase Journey. OpenAI has unveiled a new shopping research function in ChatGPT, creating more specific commerce-driven capabilities that align with innate shopping behaviors. Users on Free, Go, Plus, and Pro plans can use the function, which the company says is “built for that deeper kind of decision-making.” In addition to basic product discovery, the platform can compare items side by side, find lookalikes, find deals, and even hunt for gifts. The timing could not be more perfect as consumers turn to their agents to take some of the mental load out of holiday shopping.
👁️ We were ahead of the curve. Long before these product launches, we dug deep into how consumers across demographics were using AI platforms at each phase of the shopping journey and how it would reframe their interactions with brands across channels. Get your hands on the data to discover how commerce is getting more contextual and omnipresent, and what it means for your brand.
Choose Your Own Journey. Character.AI, the company facing several lawsuits for its alleged role in teen suicides and suicide attempts, has launched “Stories,” a new play to engage kids and appease their guardians. The feature allows users to create interactive, fictional stories that include their favorite characters, a shift from the previous open-ended chat format. In fact, underage users can no longer access the chat function at all.
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