Black Friday is dead. We killed it with our phones, buried it under endless scroll sessions, and replaced it with something far more dangerous: shopping that never stops.

We can pinpoint the moment it happened: Thanksgiving 2014, when mobile browsing surpassed desktop usage for the first time. Families gathered around dinner tables while secretly tapping through deals on their phones. The moment Bloomberg reported this milestone, it marked the beginning of the end for everything we thought we knew about holiday shopping.

“Couch commerce” was used to better contextualize how smartphones influenced when, where, and why people shopped, especially during the holidays. Amid their Thanksgiving celebrations, consumers no longer had to leave the comfort of their homes to start ticking off their holiday shopping lists. Instead, they hopped on the couch, whipped out their digital device of choice, and started tapping away. 

The smartphone revolution didn't just change how consumers shop; it completely reframed the cultural traditions surrounding holiday shopping.

And now, the always-on influence of social media, combined with the contextual power of AI, is changing it once again. 

The Death of Black Friday’s Monopoly 

Black Friday originated in the 1950s as a nickname for the Philadelphia Police Force that needed to work the day after Thanksgiving to manage the hordes of tourists, football fans, and shoppers who flocked to the city ahead of the annual Army-Navy football game.

Despite the intensity of the nickname, it stuck, and in the 1980s, retailers were able to rewrite the lore and claim it was a day when stores finally turned a profit. Using a combination of exclusive sales, giveaways, and other campaigns, retailers turned Black Friday into the epicenter of holiday shopping customs.

Over the years, Black Friday gave way to Cyber Monday and eventually, the two converged to form Cyber Week. Now, this week is a mere blip on an increasingly complex and convoluted planning calendar. 

Black Friday and Cyber Week have been overshadowed by the relentless pace of commerce, where the distinction between "holiday shopping" and everyday transactions has blurred. 

Most consumers are in a constant state of conscious and unconscious shopping, while also combating economic uncertainty and global volatility by controlling the controllable: what they buy and how they buy it.

Retail leaders must adapt to an environment where consumers are increasingly engaged, comparing products, evaluating value, and seeking meaning in their purchases throughout the year via social media and AI.

“Social media and in-app shopping are going to continue to be major trends,” explained Bobby Stephens, Deloitte Digital’s US Retail & Consumer Products Lead. “The power of the mobile device, and the native tools and connectivity it provides, indicates that it’s the only truly omnichannel device that we have. Nobody’s bringing their laptop to a store.” 

But this isn't just about convenience; it's about influence. Adults may be using digital tools and channels to find the best deals, but social media is a key influencer for both young parents and their Gen Alpha kids alike.

This technological shift is so profound that consumers are now turning to artificial intelligence for the most personal part of shopping: gift selection. In fact, 15% of Gen Z and Millennial consumers surveyed by PwC said they plan to use AI to find gift ideas.

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Always-On, Always Influential

Holiday shopping is now an “always-on” pursuit. Nearly 80% of planned gift budgets are expected to be spent before Cyber Monday, and over half of consumers said they are beginning their shopping well ahead of the classic holiday rush. This shift to earlier, continuous shopping is redefining when and how brands must engage.

And when, exactly, is “holiday shopping?”

The confusion about when holiday shopping "starts" reveals how completely the old rules have dissolved.

Retailers used to wait until after Halloween to launch holiday campaigns. Now they compete with Amazon's summer Prime Days, Target's back-to-school events, and a parade of flash sales that blur the lines between seasons. Some industry insiders point to Singles Day (November 11th) as the unofficial start, but even that feels arbitrary when consumers are Christmas shopping at Costco in July.

Deloitte forecasts that holiday retail sales will increase between 2.9% and 3.9% year over year, with up to $1.62 trillion coming in between November and January, the historic holiday shopping “prime time.” For context, retail sales between November 2024 and January 2025 increased by 4.2% to a total of $1.57 trillion, excluding automotive and gasoline sales.

PwC paints a more sobering picture, anticipating a 5% drop from 2024. The firm notes that this is the retail industry’s first notable downward shift since 2020. Although the vast majority of consumers (84%) plan to cut back on spending over the next six months, largely due to rising prices, new tariffs, and the higher cost of living, eCommerce remains a bright spot, with Deloitte expecting a 7% to 9% growth, right in line with the 8% growth retailers saw in 2024.

A reason for this spending pullback can also be attributed to the fact that consumers are shopping earlier and more frequently, even for the holiday season. Today's always-on consumers, focused on finding the best deal, have fundamentally restructured when, where, and why they spend. 

The psychology of holiday shopping now centers on value, trust, and emotional relevance, rather than just pricing and convenience. Consumers crave brands that “get” them, and the hunt for value is more nuanced. 

Gone are the days when brands could save their best product drops and campaigns for Q4. Now, they must consider how to consistently reach and resonate with consumers during other key shopping holidays. Prime Day and the consecutive “Summerween” season account for the crop of retail sales events that launch during the summer and begin to promote back-to-school deals and tease autumn holiday products. This past season alone, Walmart, Target, and Best Buy were among the retailers to host their own events to compete against Amazon.

The back-to-school and holiday elongation was especially felt this year, however, with consumers purchasing big-ticket items to try and get ahead of new tariffs. These behaviors will undoubtedly have a ripple effect going into the typically peak holiday shopping season, according to John Mercer, Head of Global Research at Coresight. 

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“Our data suggests this is likely to negatively impact electronics, with 35% of shoppers buying early in this sector, as well as appliances (31%),” Mercer said. “A very high share of those early shoppers expect to reduce their purchases later in the year. There may be more muted effects in the core holiday gifting category of apparel, where 27% have pulled forward purchases and 19% say this will reduce purchases later in the year.”

Stephens agreed; however, he noted that the jury is still out regarding whether this pull-forward effect will actually have an impact on final holiday sales. “For some households, these sales events are a great time for them to get ahead of some holiday shopping, and for others, it’s about finding the deal,” he said. “But maybe it actually isn’t taking away from holiday shopping whatsoever. But I think when you've got three or four of the biggest retailers all doing something similar, it creates a bit of a habit for consumers.” 

Of course, the firm numbers only tell one piece of a much larger story of how consumers are defining value, especially in the context of gift-giving, which tends to be a more cultural and emotional experience. 

From Products to Moments

At its core, holiday shopping is about just that: shopping. News footage of yesteryear has long confirmed that the hype machine of Black Friday turned the season into a period of senseless, even reckless, consumerism. The advent of technology and “everything stores” like Amazon has made the act of browsing and buying far easier, allowing shoppers to instantly compare products and prices to their heart’s content. But it doesn’t address the heart of the season, which requires putting empathy and understanding into what you buy. 

Consumers aged 17 to 28 say they plan to reduce their holiday budgets by 23%, which is more than any other cohort.

For some consumers, the value may lie more in the intent and message behind the purchase, not so much the item itself. Gen Z will most likely make this mental pivot more than others; while PwC found that spending of other demographics was relatively consistent year over year, consumers aged 17 to 28 say they plan to reduce their holiday budgets by 23%, which is more than any other cohort.
Many Gen Z consumers are still in the early stages of their careers. They’re navigating major life transitions and are adapting to the rising cost of living. As a result, the context surrounding their buying decisions, both for themselves and for their loved ones, is changing.

Although Stephens noted that this demographic has played a particularly large role in the spending shift from products to experiences, they are also driving spending in resale: A full third of Gen Z also say they're cutting back consumption to reduce environmental impact, and 63% are opting for resale or upcycled products. 

These consumers are also driving the sale of “little treats” and novelty items like Labubus, which are relatively low-ticket, yet have the cultural power to communicate relevance and clout. 

The shift from products to moments is accelerating. Consumers are placing greater emphasis on the meaning, intent, and emotional impact of gifts. PwC noted that 39% of their smaller holiday budgets are going toward self-gifting, like little treats and wellness items. 

The takeaway for retailers is to focus more on the holiday season’s traditional moments and milestones. Instead, they must narrow their focus to better contextualize marketing and experiential strategies so they align with demographics as well as psychographics. Attributes such as life stage, values, and even emotions influence spending, dictating whether we plan to show our loved ones we care through products, services, or experiences. 

For retail leaders, the challenge is no longer just about anticipating demand but about cultivating trust, relevance, and meaning in every interaction. In this era of constant commerce, those who listen, adapt, and reimagine the essence of still-beloved holiday shopping traditions will be able to not only capture holiday spend but earn loyalty that lasts far beyond the season.