of the United Kingdom’s capitol city.
The holidays are always a time for spectacle, and it is no surprise that the retail industry is driving the most during BFCM, a holiday week that sets the tone for what the collective “we” can expect through the New Year.
Adobe and Salesforce released frequent updates to their calculations on eCommerce sales, AI usage, and even the role of mobile and social as commerce influencers. RetailNext gauged whether the ubiquity of online hit brick-and-mortar where it hurts, and Shopify visualized live commerce on the Exosphere in Las Vegas. From the practical to the bombastic, we tapped into these insights in near real time, watching with bated breath to see which predictions would come true and which trends would dominate holiday retail discourse.
Thanksgiving Day Retail Sales: ‘Couch Commerce’ Compounds Growth
“Couch commerce” truly came to a head on Thanksgiving Day, even among those who didn’t formally celebrate. Consumers worldwide spent $35.6B online on Thursday, up 6% over last year, according to Salesforce data, with the most popular categories being home furniture (+27% YOY), active apparel (+12% YOY), and toys and learning (+10% YOY).
US consumers accounted for $8.4B of that spend, a 3% increase from 2024. These consumers essentially used their mobile devices to browse and buy, accounting for 80% of traffic and 75% of digital orders. The most significant growth was seen in active apparel and footwear (+19% YOY), food and beverage (+10% YOY), and luxury apparel (+7% YOY).
The ASP Factor
Retail sales rose, but Thanksgiving order volumes fell 2% year over year, indicating the boost came from a higher average selling price (ASP). Salesforce calculated that ASP was up 8% over last year, with the home category, including furniture, decor, and appliances, being hit the hardest (+32% ASP increase). Meanwhile, the ASP for food and beverage categories was up 14%. We’ve been analyzing how new tariff rules and rates are affecting consumer spending for more than 7 months. For most of that time, the headlines felt like a lot of fearmongering; during the summer, merchants saw shoppers frontload purchases ahead of new tariffs, especially electronics. However, a higher ASP, coupled with flat year-over-year discounting, means we’re starting to see the effects as retailers fight to protect margins.
Adobe’s Thanksgiving analysis differed slightly from Salesforce’s, particularly in pricing and promotions. On Thanksgiving, the saw shoppers “trade up” to higher-ticket items in categories like electronics, where “share-of-units sold” for the most expensive goods increased by 58%. The company tracked similar patterns for sporting goods (up 53%), appliances (up 44%), personal care (up 36%), and tools/home improvement (up 30%). This data diverges from the media narrative that emphasized consumers trading down to stretch their budgets.
The “trade-up” strategy could be attributed to the fact that the merchants Adobe analyzed took a different approach to discounting. The company noted that they tracked “stronger than anticipated” deals on Thanksgiving Day. For example, discounts for electronics peaked at 28% off the listed price, a rate Adobe did not expect until Cyber Monday.
Evolved Sources of Holiday Shopping Influence
Salesforce found that the total number of service conversations with AI agents has surged by 28% YOY from Nov. 25-27. Additionally, the company found that retailers who have agents on their websites saw 9% sales growth on Thanksgiving alone.
Both Adobe and Salesforce also confirmed social media’s enhanced role in the holiday shopping experience. Adobe found that social media’s share of online revenue was 5%, up 30% YOY. Affiliates and partners (including influencers) garnered nearly a 22% share of revenue, a clear continuation of influencer-led media consumption we tracked during the back-to-school shopping season. While Salesforce didn’t track influencer-driven sales specifically, it noted that 15% of global Thanksgiving traffic and 18% of US traffic came from social media referrals, up 10% YOY for both.
Black Friday Retail Sales: The Day Stays True to Its Roots
Black Friday’s origins can be traced back to the 1950s in Philadelphia, but it quickly became a Retail Shopping Holiday that marked the moment merchants officially went into the black.
The cultural customs followed: sleeping outside of stores to get 5 am doorbuster deals, trampling your peers to get your hands on the new, hot toy, and bopping from store to store with your family in tow. Despite numerous think-pieces saying the contrary, this year’s Black Friday sales results confirm that the holiday is very much alive and well.
Deloitte’s Lupine Skelly said it best:
“People have been trying to kill off Black Friday for 20 years…Black Friday is not dead.”
Doorbusters or Bust
Indeed, even in our current era of hyper-connectivity, where we’re in a constant state of purchase consideration and efficient product comparison, we still cannot say goodbye to the Black Friday Doorbuster. Driven by our growing love for nostalgia and community-based retail experiences, this year was especially strong for in-store deals and activations.
“It seems that Gen Z and Alpha are here for the near-death experiences of Black Fridays of yesteryear, and this year, retailers were all too happy to indulge them.”
- Phillip Jackson, The Senses
The most popular offers at early-opening stores were gift bags and gift cards. Kohl’s, Lowe’s, and Target each handed out a swag bag and gift card drawing for the first 200 and 100 customers in line, respectively. For Target, the initial surge of social media hype turned into roaring outrage as consumers did live “unbaggings” of their free totes and took inventory of their free goods.
Some retailers got more creative with their giveaways, turning them into viral-ready challenges. Discounter Five Below gamified their doorbuster event (a $25 “all you can Squishmallow” sale) by daring 7 am shoppers to take the “squish” in the mallow literally—the deal had a limit of 10 per customer, and customers had to fit them all in an impossibly small tote. Each store had a limit of 15 totes.
Retailers spun up these nostalgic “embodied” store experiences to bring customers back to their stores. But did it actually get people to leave their couches (and lackluster deals) and brave the crowds? In-store traffic analytics company RetailNext found that brick-and-mortar footfall dropped 3.6% YOY on Black Friday, with retailers seeing an even greater drop (-8.6%) on Saturday, Nov. 29.
The Digital Dichotomy
Ecommerce sales continued to climb on Black Friday, with Adobe reporting $11.8B in US online sales, a new record from 2024’s $10.8B. During peak shopping hours, 10 am to 2 pm, online shoppers were spending $12.5M each minute. Salesforce’s US numbers were relatively similar ($18B); however, its global results were even more staggering, climbing 6% YOY to $79B.
ASP continued to wreak havoc on shopping carts (+7%), impacting home goods (+24% YOY), electronics (+7% YOY), and general apparel (+6% YOY) the most in the US. As a result, order volumes (-1% YOY) and units per transaction (-2% YOY) both fell, revealing the true dichotomy of holiday shopping online: one expects not just an easy shopping experience online, but an effective one. That means finding the best product at the best possible price.
Despite research indicating that consumers were searching for deals that aligned with their strapped budgets, retailers continued to hold out on the mass discounts typically promised during this commerce holiday weekend.
Many consumers apparently used AI and agents to close the experience gap. According to Salesforce, $14.2B in global online sales and $3B in US online sales were driven by AI and agents on Black Friday. Specifically, agentic customer service conversations increased by 71% over the week prior, and the total number of tasks completed by eCommerce agents (such as updating delivery addresses) increased by 84% over the same period.
The Wellness Resurgence
The Future Commerce WOM Index has consistently found that beauty and health products have suffered from severely low WOM rates. Beauty and health are such complex yet intimate categories. Based on science and ingredient effectiveness, brand and product usage can also be influenced by individual needs, preferences, and even physical attributes, such as allergies. Word of mouth can guide consumers to the right products for their unique needs and goals. While WOM is low, these were highly in-demand categories on Black Friday, especially among Shopify merchants selling vitamins, supplements, and skincare products.
Cyber Monday (So Far)
Following several days of growth, Cyber Monday is expected to see the most significant surge in sales. Adobe expects consumers to spend a record $14.2B by the end of today, up 6.3% YOY. The company expects purchase behaviors to peak between 8 pm and 10 pm. Salesforce also expects an 8% increase globally (reaching $53.7B) and 4% increase nationally (to $13.4B) by the end of today.
Adobe expects the deepest discounts for electronics, which will peak at 30% off the listed price, followed by apparel (26%), toys (27%), and computers (24%). Discounting may reach its highest levels today, but the company expects US Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) usage to cross the $1B milestone, marking its largest day of usage. This could tie to consumers “trading up” for more premium goods, especially in electronics, where the share of units sold for more expensive goods will reach 65%. AI traffic to retail sites is expected to increase by 670% on Cyber Monday, after rising 770% in November.
We still have a few hours left before the final round of BFCM comes in, so stay tuned for our final updates on Wednesday.
The holidays are always a time for spectacle, and it is no surprise that the retail industry is driving the most during BFCM, a holiday week that sets the tone for what the collective “we” can expect through the New Year.
Adobe and Salesforce released frequent updates to their calculations on eCommerce sales, AI usage, and even the role of mobile and social as commerce influencers. RetailNext gauged whether the ubiquity of online hit brick-and-mortar where it hurts, and Shopify visualized live commerce on the Exosphere in Las Vegas. From the practical to the bombastic, we tapped into these insights in near real time, watching with bated breath to see which predictions would come true and which trends would dominate holiday retail discourse.
Thanksgiving Day Retail Sales: ‘Couch Commerce’ Compounds Growth
“Couch commerce” truly came to a head on Thanksgiving Day, even among those who didn’t formally celebrate. Consumers worldwide spent $35.6B online on Thursday, up 6% over last year, according to Salesforce data, with the most popular categories being home furniture (+27% YOY), active apparel (+12% YOY), and toys and learning (+10% YOY).
US consumers accounted for $8.4B of that spend, a 3% increase from 2024. These consumers essentially used their mobile devices to browse and buy, accounting for 80% of traffic and 75% of digital orders. The most significant growth was seen in active apparel and footwear (+19% YOY), food and beverage (+10% YOY), and luxury apparel (+7% YOY).
The ASP Factor
Retail sales rose, but Thanksgiving order volumes fell 2% year over year, indicating the boost came from a higher average selling price (ASP). Salesforce calculated that ASP was up 8% over last year, with the home category, including furniture, decor, and appliances, being hit the hardest (+32% ASP increase). Meanwhile, the ASP for food and beverage categories was up 14%. We’ve been analyzing how new tariff rules and rates are affecting consumer spending for more than 7 months. For most of that time, the headlines felt like a lot of fearmongering; during the summer, merchants saw shoppers frontload purchases ahead of new tariffs, especially electronics. However, a higher ASP, coupled with flat year-over-year discounting, means we’re starting to see the effects as retailers fight to protect margins.
Adobe’s Thanksgiving analysis differed slightly from Salesforce’s, particularly in pricing and promotions. On Thanksgiving, the saw shoppers “trade up” to higher-ticket items in categories like electronics, where “share-of-units sold” for the most expensive goods increased by 58%. The company tracked similar patterns for sporting goods (up 53%), appliances (up 44%), personal care (up 36%), and tools/home improvement (up 30%). This data diverges from the media narrative that emphasized consumers trading down to stretch their budgets.
The “trade-up” strategy could be attributed to the fact that the merchants Adobe analyzed took a different approach to discounting. The company noted that they tracked “stronger than anticipated” deals on Thanksgiving Day. For example, discounts for electronics peaked at 28% off the listed price, a rate Adobe did not expect until Cyber Monday.
Evolved Sources of Holiday Shopping Influence
Salesforce found that the total number of service conversations with AI agents has surged by 28% YOY from Nov. 25-27. Additionally, the company found that retailers who have agents on their websites saw 9% sales growth on Thanksgiving alone.
Both Adobe and Salesforce also confirmed social media’s enhanced role in the holiday shopping experience. Adobe found that social media’s share of online revenue was 5%, up 30% YOY. Affiliates and partners (including influencers) garnered nearly a 22% share of revenue, a clear continuation of influencer-led media consumption we tracked during the back-to-school shopping season. While Salesforce didn’t track influencer-driven sales specifically, it noted that 15% of global Thanksgiving traffic and 18% of US traffic came from social media referrals, up 10% YOY for both.
Black Friday Retail Sales: The Day Stays True to Its Roots
Black Friday’s origins can be traced back to the 1950s in Philadelphia, but it quickly became a Retail Shopping Holiday that marked the moment merchants officially went into the black.
The cultural customs followed: sleeping outside of stores to get 5 am doorbuster deals, trampling your peers to get your hands on the new, hot toy, and bopping from store to store with your family in tow. Despite numerous think-pieces saying the contrary, this year’s Black Friday sales results confirm that the holiday is very much alive and well.
Deloitte’s Lupine Skelly said it best:
“People have been trying to kill off Black Friday for 20 years…Black Friday is not dead.”
Doorbusters or Bust
Indeed, even in our current era of hyper-connectivity, where we’re in a constant state of purchase consideration and efficient product comparison, we still cannot say goodbye to the Black Friday Doorbuster. Driven by our growing love for nostalgia and community-based retail experiences, this year was especially strong for in-store deals and activations.
“It seems that Gen Z and Alpha are here for the near-death experiences of Black Fridays of yesteryear, and this year, retailers were all too happy to indulge them.”
- Phillip Jackson, The Senses
The most popular offers at early-opening stores were gift bags and gift cards. Kohl’s, Lowe’s, and Target each handed out a swag bag and gift card drawing for the first 200 and 100 customers in line, respectively. For Target, the initial surge of social media hype turned into roaring outrage as consumers did live “unbaggings” of their free totes and took inventory of their free goods.
Some retailers got more creative with their giveaways, turning them into viral-ready challenges. Discounter Five Below gamified their doorbuster event (a $25 “all you can Squishmallow” sale) by daring 7 am shoppers to take the “squish” in the mallow literally—the deal had a limit of 10 per customer, and customers had to fit them all in an impossibly small tote. Each store had a limit of 15 totes.
Retailers spun up these nostalgic “embodied” store experiences to bring customers back to their stores. But did it actually get people to leave their couches (and lackluster deals) and brave the crowds? In-store traffic analytics company RetailNext found that brick-and-mortar footfall dropped 3.6% YOY on Black Friday, with retailers seeing an even greater drop (-8.6%) on Saturday, Nov. 29.
The Digital Dichotomy
Ecommerce sales continued to climb on Black Friday, with Adobe reporting $11.8B in US online sales, a new record from 2024’s $10.8B. During peak shopping hours, 10 am to 2 pm, online shoppers were spending $12.5M each minute. Salesforce’s US numbers were relatively similar ($18B); however, its global results were even more staggering, climbing 6% YOY to $79B.
ASP continued to wreak havoc on shopping carts (+7%), impacting home goods (+24% YOY), electronics (+7% YOY), and general apparel (+6% YOY) the most in the US. As a result, order volumes (-1% YOY) and units per transaction (-2% YOY) both fell, revealing the true dichotomy of holiday shopping online: one expects not just an easy shopping experience online, but an effective one. That means finding the best product at the best possible price.
Despite research indicating that consumers were searching for deals that aligned with their strapped budgets, retailers continued to hold out on the mass discounts typically promised during this commerce holiday weekend.
Many consumers apparently used AI and agents to close the experience gap. According to Salesforce, $14.2B in global online sales and $3B in US online sales were driven by AI and agents on Black Friday. Specifically, agentic customer service conversations increased by 71% over the week prior, and the total number of tasks completed by eCommerce agents (such as updating delivery addresses) increased by 84% over the same period.
The Wellness Resurgence
The Future Commerce WOM Index has consistently found that beauty and health products have suffered from severely low WOM rates. Beauty and health are such complex yet intimate categories. Based on science and ingredient effectiveness, brand and product usage can also be influenced by individual needs, preferences, and even physical attributes, such as allergies. Word of mouth can guide consumers to the right products for their unique needs and goals. While WOM is low, these were highly in-demand categories on Black Friday, especially among Shopify merchants selling vitamins, supplements, and skincare products.
Cyber Monday (So Far)
Following several days of growth, Cyber Monday is expected to see the most significant surge in sales. Adobe expects consumers to spend a record $14.2B by the end of today, up 6.3% YOY. The company expects purchase behaviors to peak between 8 pm and 10 pm. Salesforce also expects an 8% increase globally (reaching $53.7B) and 4% increase nationally (to $13.4B) by the end of today.
Adobe expects the deepest discounts for electronics, which will peak at 30% off the listed price, followed by apparel (26%), toys (27%), and computers (24%). Discounting may reach its highest levels today, but the company expects US Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) usage to cross the $1B milestone, marking its largest day of usage. This could tie to consumers “trading up” for more premium goods, especially in electronics, where the share of units sold for more expensive goods will reach 65%. AI traffic to retail sites is expected to increase by 670% on Cyber Monday, after rising 770% in November.
We still have a few hours left before the final round of BFCM comes in, so stay tuned for our final updates on Wednesday.
The holidays are always a time for spectacle, and it is no surprise that the retail industry is driving the most during BFCM, a holiday week that sets the tone for what the collective “we” can expect through the New Year.
Adobe and Salesforce released frequent updates to their calculations on eCommerce sales, AI usage, and even the role of mobile and social as commerce influencers. RetailNext gauged whether the ubiquity of online hit brick-and-mortar where it hurts, and Shopify visualized live commerce on the Exosphere in Las Vegas. From the practical to the bombastic, we tapped into these insights in near real time, watching with bated breath to see which predictions would come true and which trends would dominate holiday retail discourse.
Thanksgiving Day Retail Sales: ‘Couch Commerce’ Compounds Growth
“Couch commerce” truly came to a head on Thanksgiving Day, even among those who didn’t formally celebrate. Consumers worldwide spent $35.6B online on Thursday, up 6% over last year, according to Salesforce data, with the most popular categories being home furniture (+27% YOY), active apparel (+12% YOY), and toys and learning (+10% YOY).
US consumers accounted for $8.4B of that spend, a 3% increase from 2024. These consumers essentially used their mobile devices to browse and buy, accounting for 80% of traffic and 75% of digital orders. The most significant growth was seen in active apparel and footwear (+19% YOY), food and beverage (+10% YOY), and luxury apparel (+7% YOY).
The ASP Factor
Retail sales rose, but Thanksgiving order volumes fell 2% year over year, indicating the boost came from a higher average selling price (ASP). Salesforce calculated that ASP was up 8% over last year, with the home category, including furniture, decor, and appliances, being hit the hardest (+32% ASP increase). Meanwhile, the ASP for food and beverage categories was up 14%. We’ve been analyzing how new tariff rules and rates are affecting consumer spending for more than 7 months. For most of that time, the headlines felt like a lot of fearmongering; during the summer, merchants saw shoppers frontload purchases ahead of new tariffs, especially electronics. However, a higher ASP, coupled with flat year-over-year discounting, means we’re starting to see the effects as retailers fight to protect margins.
Adobe’s Thanksgiving analysis differed slightly from Salesforce’s, particularly in pricing and promotions. On Thanksgiving, the saw shoppers “trade up” to higher-ticket items in categories like electronics, where “share-of-units sold” for the most expensive goods increased by 58%. The company tracked similar patterns for sporting goods (up 53%), appliances (up 44%), personal care (up 36%), and tools/home improvement (up 30%). This data diverges from the media narrative that emphasized consumers trading down to stretch their budgets.
The “trade-up” strategy could be attributed to the fact that the merchants Adobe analyzed took a different approach to discounting. The company noted that they tracked “stronger than anticipated” deals on Thanksgiving Day. For example, discounts for electronics peaked at 28% off the listed price, a rate Adobe did not expect until Cyber Monday.
Evolved Sources of Holiday Shopping Influence
Salesforce found that the total number of service conversations with AI agents has surged by 28% YOY from Nov. 25-27. Additionally, the company found that retailers who have agents on their websites saw 9% sales growth on Thanksgiving alone.
Both Adobe and Salesforce also confirmed social media’s enhanced role in the holiday shopping experience. Adobe found that social media’s share of online revenue was 5%, up 30% YOY. Affiliates and partners (including influencers) garnered nearly a 22% share of revenue, a clear continuation of influencer-led media consumption we tracked during the back-to-school shopping season. While Salesforce didn’t track influencer-driven sales specifically, it noted that 15% of global Thanksgiving traffic and 18% of US traffic came from social media referrals, up 10% YOY for both.
Black Friday Retail Sales: The Day Stays True to Its Roots
Black Friday’s origins can be traced back to the 1950s in Philadelphia, but it quickly became a Retail Shopping Holiday that marked the moment merchants officially went into the black.
The cultural customs followed: sleeping outside of stores to get 5 am doorbuster deals, trampling your peers to get your hands on the new, hot toy, and bopping from store to store with your family in tow. Despite numerous think-pieces saying the contrary, this year’s Black Friday sales results confirm that the holiday is very much alive and well.
Deloitte’s Lupine Skelly said it best:
“People have been trying to kill off Black Friday for 20 years…Black Friday is not dead.”
Doorbusters or Bust
Indeed, even in our current era of hyper-connectivity, where we’re in a constant state of purchase consideration and efficient product comparison, we still cannot say goodbye to the Black Friday Doorbuster. Driven by our growing love for nostalgia and community-based retail experiences, this year was especially strong for in-store deals and activations.
“It seems that Gen Z and Alpha are here for the near-death experiences of Black Fridays of yesteryear, and this year, retailers were all too happy to indulge them.”
- Phillip Jackson, The Senses
The most popular offers at early-opening stores were gift bags and gift cards. Kohl’s, Lowe’s, and Target each handed out a swag bag and gift card drawing for the first 200 and 100 customers in line, respectively. For Target, the initial surge of social media hype turned into roaring outrage as consumers did live “unbaggings” of their free totes and took inventory of their free goods.
Some retailers got more creative with their giveaways, turning them into viral-ready challenges. Discounter Five Below gamified their doorbuster event (a $25 “all you can Squishmallow” sale) by daring 7 am shoppers to take the “squish” in the mallow literally—the deal had a limit of 10 per customer, and customers had to fit them all in an impossibly small tote. Each store had a limit of 15 totes.
Retailers spun up these nostalgic “embodied” store experiences to bring customers back to their stores. But did it actually get people to leave their couches (and lackluster deals) and brave the crowds? In-store traffic analytics company RetailNext found that brick-and-mortar footfall dropped 3.6% YOY on Black Friday, with retailers seeing an even greater drop (-8.6%) on Saturday, Nov. 29.
The Digital Dichotomy
Ecommerce sales continued to climb on Black Friday, with Adobe reporting $11.8B in US online sales, a new record from 2024’s $10.8B. During peak shopping hours, 10 am to 2 pm, online shoppers were spending $12.5M each minute. Salesforce’s US numbers were relatively similar ($18B); however, its global results were even more staggering, climbing 6% YOY to $79B.
ASP continued to wreak havoc on shopping carts (+7%), impacting home goods (+24% YOY), electronics (+7% YOY), and general apparel (+6% YOY) the most in the US. As a result, order volumes (-1% YOY) and units per transaction (-2% YOY) both fell, revealing the true dichotomy of holiday shopping online: one expects not just an easy shopping experience online, but an effective one. That means finding the best product at the best possible price.
Despite research indicating that consumers were searching for deals that aligned with their strapped budgets, retailers continued to hold out on the mass discounts typically promised during this commerce holiday weekend.
Many consumers apparently used AI and agents to close the experience gap. According to Salesforce, $14.2B in global online sales and $3B in US online sales were driven by AI and agents on Black Friday. Specifically, agentic customer service conversations increased by 71% over the week prior, and the total number of tasks completed by eCommerce agents (such as updating delivery addresses) increased by 84% over the same period.
The Wellness Resurgence
The Future Commerce WOM Index has consistently found that beauty and health products have suffered from severely low WOM rates. Beauty and health are such complex yet intimate categories. Based on science and ingredient effectiveness, brand and product usage can also be influenced by individual needs, preferences, and even physical attributes, such as allergies. Word of mouth can guide consumers to the right products for their unique needs and goals. While WOM is low, these were highly in-demand categories on Black Friday, especially among Shopify merchants selling vitamins, supplements, and skincare products.
Cyber Monday (So Far)
Following several days of growth, Cyber Monday is expected to see the most significant surge in sales. Adobe expects consumers to spend a record $14.2B by the end of today, up 6.3% YOY. The company expects purchase behaviors to peak between 8 pm and 10 pm. Salesforce also expects an 8% increase globally (reaching $53.7B) and 4% increase nationally (to $13.4B) by the end of today.
Adobe expects the deepest discounts for electronics, which will peak at 30% off the listed price, followed by apparel (26%), toys (27%), and computers (24%). Discounting may reach its highest levels today, but the company expects US Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) usage to cross the $1B milestone, marking its largest day of usage. This could tie to consumers “trading up” for more premium goods, especially in electronics, where the share of units sold for more expensive goods will reach 65%. AI traffic to retail sites is expected to increase by 670% on Cyber Monday, after rising 770% in November.
We still have a few hours left before the final round of BFCM comes in, so stay tuned for our final updates on Wednesday.
The holidays are always a time for spectacle, and it is no surprise that the retail industry is driving the most during BFCM, a holiday week that sets the tone for what the collective “we” can expect through the New Year.
Adobe and Salesforce released frequent updates to their calculations on eCommerce sales, AI usage, and even the role of mobile and social as commerce influencers. RetailNext gauged whether the ubiquity of online hit brick-and-mortar where it hurts, and Shopify visualized live commerce on the Exosphere in Las Vegas. From the practical to the bombastic, we tapped into these insights in near real time, watching with bated breath to see which predictions would come true and which trends would dominate holiday retail discourse.
Thanksgiving Day Retail Sales: ‘Couch Commerce’ Compounds Growth
“Couch commerce” truly came to a head on Thanksgiving Day, even among those who didn’t formally celebrate. Consumers worldwide spent $35.6B online on Thursday, up 6% over last year, according to Salesforce data, with the most popular categories being home furniture (+27% YOY), active apparel (+12% YOY), and toys and learning (+10% YOY).
US consumers accounted for $8.4B of that spend, a 3% increase from 2024. These consumers essentially used their mobile devices to browse and buy, accounting for 80% of traffic and 75% of digital orders. The most significant growth was seen in active apparel and footwear (+19% YOY), food and beverage (+10% YOY), and luxury apparel (+7% YOY).
The ASP Factor
Retail sales rose, but Thanksgiving order volumes fell 2% year over year, indicating the boost came from a higher average selling price (ASP). Salesforce calculated that ASP was up 8% over last year, with the home category, including furniture, decor, and appliances, being hit the hardest (+32% ASP increase). Meanwhile, the ASP for food and beverage categories was up 14%. We’ve been analyzing how new tariff rules and rates are affecting consumer spending for more than 7 months. For most of that time, the headlines felt like a lot of fearmongering; during the summer, merchants saw shoppers frontload purchases ahead of new tariffs, especially electronics. However, a higher ASP, coupled with flat year-over-year discounting, means we’re starting to see the effects as retailers fight to protect margins.
Adobe’s Thanksgiving analysis differed slightly from Salesforce’s, particularly in pricing and promotions. On Thanksgiving, the saw shoppers “trade up” to higher-ticket items in categories like electronics, where “share-of-units sold” for the most expensive goods increased by 58%. The company tracked similar patterns for sporting goods (up 53%), appliances (up 44%), personal care (up 36%), and tools/home improvement (up 30%). This data diverges from the media narrative that emphasized consumers trading down to stretch their budgets.
The “trade-up” strategy could be attributed to the fact that the merchants Adobe analyzed took a different approach to discounting. The company noted that they tracked “stronger than anticipated” deals on Thanksgiving Day. For example, discounts for electronics peaked at 28% off the listed price, a rate Adobe did not expect until Cyber Monday.
Evolved Sources of Holiday Shopping Influence
Salesforce found that the total number of service conversations with AI agents has surged by 28% YOY from Nov. 25-27. Additionally, the company found that retailers who have agents on their websites saw 9% sales growth on Thanksgiving alone.
Both Adobe and Salesforce also confirmed social media’s enhanced role in the holiday shopping experience. Adobe found that social media’s share of online revenue was 5%, up 30% YOY. Affiliates and partners (including influencers) garnered nearly a 22% share of revenue, a clear continuation of influencer-led media consumption we tracked during the back-to-school shopping season. While Salesforce didn’t track influencer-driven sales specifically, it noted that 15% of global Thanksgiving traffic and 18% of US traffic came from social media referrals, up 10% YOY for both.
Black Friday Retail Sales: The Day Stays True to Its Roots
Black Friday’s origins can be traced back to the 1950s in Philadelphia, but it quickly became a Retail Shopping Holiday that marked the moment merchants officially went into the black.
The cultural customs followed: sleeping outside of stores to get 5 am doorbuster deals, trampling your peers to get your hands on the new, hot toy, and bopping from store to store with your family in tow. Despite numerous think-pieces saying the contrary, this year’s Black Friday sales results confirm that the holiday is very much alive and well.
Deloitte’s Lupine Skelly said it best:
“People have been trying to kill off Black Friday for 20 years…Black Friday is not dead.”
Doorbusters or Bust
Indeed, even in our current era of hyper-connectivity, where we’re in a constant state of purchase consideration and efficient product comparison, we still cannot say goodbye to the Black Friday Doorbuster. Driven by our growing love for nostalgia and community-based retail experiences, this year was especially strong for in-store deals and activations.
“It seems that Gen Z and Alpha are here for the near-death experiences of Black Fridays of yesteryear, and this year, retailers were all too happy to indulge them.”
- Phillip Jackson, The Senses
The most popular offers at early-opening stores were gift bags and gift cards. Kohl’s, Lowe’s, and Target each handed out a swag bag and gift card drawing for the first 200 and 100 customers in line, respectively. For Target, the initial surge of social media hype turned into roaring outrage as consumers did live “unbaggings” of their free totes and took inventory of their free goods.
Some retailers got more creative with their giveaways, turning them into viral-ready challenges. Discounter Five Below gamified their doorbuster event (a $25 “all you can Squishmallow” sale) by daring 7 am shoppers to take the “squish” in the mallow literally—the deal had a limit of 10 per customer, and customers had to fit them all in an impossibly small tote. Each store had a limit of 15 totes.
Retailers spun up these nostalgic “embodied” store experiences to bring customers back to their stores. But did it actually get people to leave their couches (and lackluster deals) and brave the crowds? In-store traffic analytics company RetailNext found that brick-and-mortar footfall dropped 3.6% YOY on Black Friday, with retailers seeing an even greater drop (-8.6%) on Saturday, Nov. 29.
The Digital Dichotomy
Ecommerce sales continued to climb on Black Friday, with Adobe reporting $11.8B in US online sales, a new record from 2024’s $10.8B. During peak shopping hours, 10 am to 2 pm, online shoppers were spending $12.5M each minute. Salesforce’s US numbers were relatively similar ($18B); however, its global results were even more staggering, climbing 6% YOY to $79B.
ASP continued to wreak havoc on shopping carts (+7%), impacting home goods (+24% YOY), electronics (+7% YOY), and general apparel (+6% YOY) the most in the US. As a result, order volumes (-1% YOY) and units per transaction (-2% YOY) both fell, revealing the true dichotomy of holiday shopping online: one expects not just an easy shopping experience online, but an effective one. That means finding the best product at the best possible price.
Despite research indicating that consumers were searching for deals that aligned with their strapped budgets, retailers continued to hold out on the mass discounts typically promised during this commerce holiday weekend.
Many consumers apparently used AI and agents to close the experience gap. According to Salesforce, $14.2B in global online sales and $3B in US online sales were driven by AI and agents on Black Friday. Specifically, agentic customer service conversations increased by 71% over the week prior, and the total number of tasks completed by eCommerce agents (such as updating delivery addresses) increased by 84% over the same period.
The Wellness Resurgence
The Future Commerce WOM Index has consistently found that beauty and health products have suffered from severely low WOM rates. Beauty and health are such complex yet intimate categories. Based on science and ingredient effectiveness, brand and product usage can also be influenced by individual needs, preferences, and even physical attributes, such as allergies. Word of mouth can guide consumers to the right products for their unique needs and goals. While WOM is low, these were highly in-demand categories on Black Friday, especially among Shopify merchants selling vitamins, supplements, and skincare products.
Cyber Monday (So Far)
Following several days of growth, Cyber Monday is expected to see the most significant surge in sales. Adobe expects consumers to spend a record $14.2B by the end of today, up 6.3% YOY. The company expects purchase behaviors to peak between 8 pm and 10 pm. Salesforce also expects an 8% increase globally (reaching $53.7B) and 4% increase nationally (to $13.4B) by the end of today.
Adobe expects the deepest discounts for electronics, which will peak at 30% off the listed price, followed by apparel (26%), toys (27%), and computers (24%). Discounting may reach its highest levels today, but the company expects US Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) usage to cross the $1B milestone, marking its largest day of usage. This could tie to consumers “trading up” for more premium goods, especially in electronics, where the share of units sold for more expensive goods will reach 65%. AI traffic to retail sites is expected to increase by 670% on Cyber Monday, after rising 770% in November.
We still have a few hours left before the final round of BFCM comes in, so stay tuned for our final updates on Wednesday.
The holidays are always a time for spectacle, and it is no surprise that the retail industry is driving the most during BFCM, a holiday week that sets the tone for what the collective “we” can expect through the New Year.
Adobe and Salesforce released frequent updates to their calculations on eCommerce sales, AI usage, and even the role of mobile and social as commerce influencers. RetailNext gauged whether the ubiquity of online hit brick-and-mortar where it hurts, and Shopify visualized live commerce on the Exosphere in Las Vegas. From the practical to the bombastic, we tapped into these insights in near real time, watching with bated breath to see which predictions would come true and which trends would dominate holiday retail discourse.
Thanksgiving Day Retail Sales: ‘Couch Commerce’ Compounds Growth
“Couch commerce” truly came to a head on Thanksgiving Day, even among those who didn’t formally celebrate. Consumers worldwide spent $35.6B online on Thursday, up 6% over last year, according to Salesforce data, with the most popular categories being home furniture (+27% YOY), active apparel (+12% YOY), and toys and learning (+10% YOY).
US consumers accounted for $8.4B of that spend, a 3% increase from 2024. These consumers essentially used their mobile devices to browse and buy, accounting for 80% of traffic and 75% of digital orders. The most significant growth was seen in active apparel and footwear (+19% YOY), food and beverage (+10% YOY), and luxury apparel (+7% YOY).
The ASP Factor
Retail sales rose, but Thanksgiving order volumes fell 2% year over year, indicating the boost came from a higher average selling price (ASP). Salesforce calculated that ASP was up 8% over last year, with the home category, including furniture, decor, and appliances, being hit the hardest (+32% ASP increase). Meanwhile, the ASP for food and beverage categories was up 14%. We’ve been analyzing how new tariff rules and rates are affecting consumer spending for more than 7 months. For most of that time, the headlines felt like a lot of fearmongering; during the summer, merchants saw shoppers frontload purchases ahead of new tariffs, especially electronics. However, a higher ASP, coupled with flat year-over-year discounting, means we’re starting to see the effects as retailers fight to protect margins.
Adobe’s Thanksgiving analysis differed slightly from Salesforce’s, particularly in pricing and promotions. On Thanksgiving, the saw shoppers “trade up” to higher-ticket items in categories like electronics, where “share-of-units sold” for the most expensive goods increased by 58%. The company tracked similar patterns for sporting goods (up 53%), appliances (up 44%), personal care (up 36%), and tools/home improvement (up 30%). This data diverges from the media narrative that emphasized consumers trading down to stretch their budgets.
The “trade-up” strategy could be attributed to the fact that the merchants Adobe analyzed took a different approach to discounting. The company noted that they tracked “stronger than anticipated” deals on Thanksgiving Day. For example, discounts for electronics peaked at 28% off the listed price, a rate Adobe did not expect until Cyber Monday.
Evolved Sources of Holiday Shopping Influence
Salesforce found that the total number of service conversations with AI agents has surged by 28% YOY from Nov. 25-27. Additionally, the company found that retailers who have agents on their websites saw 9% sales growth on Thanksgiving alone.
Both Adobe and Salesforce also confirmed social media’s enhanced role in the holiday shopping experience. Adobe found that social media’s share of online revenue was 5%, up 30% YOY. Affiliates and partners (including influencers) garnered nearly a 22% share of revenue, a clear continuation of influencer-led media consumption we tracked during the back-to-school shopping season. While Salesforce didn’t track influencer-driven sales specifically, it noted that 15% of global Thanksgiving traffic and 18% of US traffic came from social media referrals, up 10% YOY for both.
Black Friday Retail Sales: The Day Stays True to Its Roots
Black Friday’s origins can be traced back to the 1950s in Philadelphia, but it quickly became a Retail Shopping Holiday that marked the moment merchants officially went into the black.
The cultural customs followed: sleeping outside of stores to get 5 am doorbuster deals, trampling your peers to get your hands on the new, hot toy, and bopping from store to store with your family in tow. Despite numerous think-pieces saying the contrary, this year’s Black Friday sales results confirm that the holiday is very much alive and well.
Deloitte’s Lupine Skelly said it best:
“People have been trying to kill off Black Friday for 20 years…Black Friday is not dead.”
Doorbusters or Bust
Indeed, even in our current era of hyper-connectivity, where we’re in a constant state of purchase consideration and efficient product comparison, we still cannot say goodbye to the Black Friday Doorbuster. Driven by our growing love for nostalgia and community-based retail experiences, this year was especially strong for in-store deals and activations.
“It seems that Gen Z and Alpha are here for the near-death experiences of Black Fridays of yesteryear, and this year, retailers were all too happy to indulge them.”
- Phillip Jackson, The Senses
The most popular offers at early-opening stores were gift bags and gift cards. Kohl’s, Lowe’s, and Target each handed out a swag bag and gift card drawing for the first 200 and 100 customers in line, respectively. For Target, the initial surge of social media hype turned into roaring outrage as consumers did live “unbaggings” of their free totes and took inventory of their free goods.
Some retailers got more creative with their giveaways, turning them into viral-ready challenges. Discounter Five Below gamified their doorbuster event (a $25 “all you can Squishmallow” sale) by daring 7 am shoppers to take the “squish” in the mallow literally—the deal had a limit of 10 per customer, and customers had to fit them all in an impossibly small tote. Each store had a limit of 15 totes.
Retailers spun up these nostalgic “embodied” store experiences to bring customers back to their stores. But did it actually get people to leave their couches (and lackluster deals) and brave the crowds? In-store traffic analytics company RetailNext found that brick-and-mortar footfall dropped 3.6% YOY on Black Friday, with retailers seeing an even greater drop (-8.6%) on Saturday, Nov. 29.
The Digital Dichotomy
Ecommerce sales continued to climb on Black Friday, with Adobe reporting $11.8B in US online sales, a new record from 2024’s $10.8B. During peak shopping hours, 10 am to 2 pm, online shoppers were spending $12.5M each minute. Salesforce’s US numbers were relatively similar ($18B); however, its global results were even more staggering, climbing 6% YOY to $79B.
ASP continued to wreak havoc on shopping carts (+7%), impacting home goods (+24% YOY), electronics (+7% YOY), and general apparel (+6% YOY) the most in the US. As a result, order volumes (-1% YOY) and units per transaction (-2% YOY) both fell, revealing the true dichotomy of holiday shopping online: one expects not just an easy shopping experience online, but an effective one. That means finding the best product at the best possible price.
Despite research indicating that consumers were searching for deals that aligned with their strapped budgets, retailers continued to hold out on the mass discounts typically promised during this commerce holiday weekend.
Many consumers apparently used AI and agents to close the experience gap. According to Salesforce, $14.2B in global online sales and $3B in US online sales were driven by AI and agents on Black Friday. Specifically, agentic customer service conversations increased by 71% over the week prior, and the total number of tasks completed by eCommerce agents (such as updating delivery addresses) increased by 84% over the same period.
The Wellness Resurgence
The Future Commerce WOM Index has consistently found that beauty and health products have suffered from severely low WOM rates. Beauty and health are such complex yet intimate categories. Based on science and ingredient effectiveness, brand and product usage can also be influenced by individual needs, preferences, and even physical attributes, such as allergies. Word of mouth can guide consumers to the right products for their unique needs and goals. While WOM is low, these were highly in-demand categories on Black Friday, especially among Shopify merchants selling vitamins, supplements, and skincare products.
Cyber Monday (So Far)
Following several days of growth, Cyber Monday is expected to see the most significant surge in sales. Adobe expects consumers to spend a record $14.2B by the end of today, up 6.3% YOY. The company expects purchase behaviors to peak between 8 pm and 10 pm. Salesforce also expects an 8% increase globally (reaching $53.7B) and 4% increase nationally (to $13.4B) by the end of today.
Adobe expects the deepest discounts for electronics, which will peak at 30% off the listed price, followed by apparel (26%), toys (27%), and computers (24%). Discounting may reach its highest levels today, but the company expects US Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) usage to cross the $1B milestone, marking its largest day of usage. This could tie to consumers “trading up” for more premium goods, especially in electronics, where the share of units sold for more expensive goods will reach 65%. AI traffic to retail sites is expected to increase by 670% on Cyber Monday, after rising 770% in November.
We still have a few hours left before the final round of BFCM comes in, so stay tuned for our final updates on Wednesday.
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