Prada just won the holiday ad wars (sorry, Sadie Sink)
Welcome to Wednesday, futurists.
If you’ve turned on the tube or scrolled your feed, you’ll know that the holidays are officially here. We’ve been tracking launches as they come in, and we’re studying how different brand approaches align with how consumers actually shop. We’ll share all the findings in our latest Signal Report, which officially arrives next week.
Walmart is running back last year’s playbook, including the “Who Knew?” tagline and Walton Goggins. But this year, they’re saying goodbye to the Grinch and dipping back into the IP bucket for a tie-up with The Muppets Christmas Carol. The ad’s name, “A Who Knew Carol,” doesn’t quite roll off the tongue, but we’ll give the team kudos for embedding Walmart products and its signature blue bags into a recreation of the film’s opening tune. Subtle references to the film itself also make it a joyful trove for Muppets fanatics.
Sephora is also seeing a positive response to its newest spokesperson: Seth Rogen. A clear departure from last year’s partner, Mariah Carey, Rogen seamlessly plays the “hopeless husband” trying to shop for skincare.
Kohl’s has brought back Ellie Kemper as “Kohl’s Mom,” and this time she heads to “The North Kohl’s,” a pretend Holiday HQ designed to make gift-giving easy and yes, cost-effective. The PR launched just yesterday, but the ad premiered during Game One of the World Series.
Target has teased the “Academy of Giftology,” a new campaign featuring actress D’Arcy Carden (of “The Good Place” fame), who has been named Chief Giftologist. The campaign officially launches early next Month (erm, week?) but media got a first look. The takeaway is clear: if you don’t know what you’re doing, or what you should buy, go to Target.
But it’s Prada’s campaign getting the most buzz. Featuring whimsical, hand-drawn animations of Disney-like animals, the photos and videos encapsulate a winter wonderland that fluidly blends nostalgia and whimsy. Last year, consumers felt creative whiplash as heritage brands like Coca-Cola doubled down on AI creative. Prada is providing an antidote by going in the complete opposite direction.
Altogether, these are unifying themes in our upcoming November Signal Report:
- Walmart leans on well-known characters to lend warmth to a big-box brand, a smart play for the Price Auditor, who scrutinizes every tactic.
- Both Target and Sephora try to “dumb down” the big gift-giving puzzle, casting themselves and their spokespeople as guides who make the season hassle-free for the Haul Hunter and the Curator alike.
- Kohl’s emphasizes deals and savings, but through the lens of buying a little something for themselves, too. Right where the Haul Hunter meets the Splurger.
Distinct approaches with clear messaging that ladder up to the four shoppers that are still spending this holiday season based on our analysis of reviews and social media data.
Our November Signal Report drops next week, but for now, we get into some of the latest headlines. Be the first to get it when it drops at futurecommerce.com/subscribe
— Alicia
Media Devolution.
If the medium is the message, what is the meaning behind the continued re-emergence of “old-school” formats?
Tubi is partnering with TikTok to launch the Creatorverse Incubator, which will tap popular content creators on the social platform into show developers. For the incubator’s first round, the companies will invest in 10 original series developed by 12 creators. Teen Vogue has also launched a new original romance fiction series in partnership with Wattpad Books. And Instagram is finally testing long-form video (up to 90 minutes!), attempting to give YouTube a run for its money. Are companies trying to foresee the future, or are they simply seeing the writing on the wall as dopamine detoxes, brain stacking, and other slow, intentional media habits emerge?
Now, this doesn’t mean short-form is gone for good. Microdramas (also known as “vertical dramas”) are still the new, hot thing. Issa Rae’s Hoorae and Made by Us Studios both just inked deals with TikTok to bring microdramas to the platform.
Creating the Digital Closet.
We’ve long coveted Cher’s fashion desktop program in the film Clueless. Alta, the AI styling app that markets itself as a feasible alternative, may be on its path to similar mainstream success. The company has raised $20M in Series A, led by Forerunner. Meanwhile, some people are vibe coding their way to a new, interactive closet. Both scenarios show how AI is helping break the boundaries of UX and UI design. Maybe digital homogeneity and the cult of best practices will finally fall.
Beauty Ads Get a Makeover.
Are funny guys beauty brands’ secret weapon? Seth Rogen has been named Sephora’s official spokesperson for holiday gift-givers, a dramatic pivot from the retailer’s 2025 ad featuring the Queen of Christmas. Bowen Yang has also been seen spreading the Estée Lauder skincare gospel in that catty, hilarious way only he can. The pivot is a nice palate cleanser for an industry that tends to shove A-list glamozons and supermodels down consumers’ throats. But will the tactic actually improve brand perception and sales?
Commerce Media Mash-Up.
Shortly after news broke that Instacart was exploring a sale, DoorDash emerged as a viable contender. The acquisition is reportedly valued at a hefty $17B, and it could spark a major shake-up in an industry trying to grow amid rising labor costs and expansion beyond takeout into grocery and retail.
We’re especially excited to explore how the possible sale will impact DoorDash’s standing as a commerce media platform.
🎧This week we sat down with Katie Daleo, General Manager of CPG Ads at DoorDash on the podcast to chat about the company’s growing ads business, including how new solutions like Brand Center turn the platform into a source of powerful insights. You can listen to the conversation here.
Redefining Handmade.
Etsy has updated its AI policy, and it’s making authorship a marketplace problem. The company has banned AI-generated functional guides, including patterns, recipes, and instructions. Listings for these items must show a real result made using the seller’s own instructions, not an AI-generated image of what the finished product might look like. Another new requirement: every listing must include at least one unedited photo of the actual item against a real background. Supplemental images can still use AI-assisted editing (to adjust lighting, color, cropping, or backgrounds), but all photos must accurately represent the item a buyer will receive.
Etsy’s policy changes show how AI is making proof of human work more valuable in the eyes of consumers. But Etsy sellers are forced to take on the labor. On subreddits, they’re debating the wording of new rules; on Threads, they’re venting about how much time and effort it will take to ensure compliance; and on YouTube, they’re debating the authenticity of Etsy’s efforts.
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